The Timeline of Presidential Elections: How Campaigns Do (and Do Not) Matter
In presidential elections, do voters cast their ballots for the candidates whose platform and positions best match their own? Or is the race for president of the United States come down largely to who runs the most effective campaign? It’s a question those who study elections have been considering for years with no clear resolution. In The Timeline of Presidential Elections, Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien reveal for the first time how both factors come into play. Erikson and Wlezien have amassed data from close to two thousand national polls covering every presidential election from 1952 to 2008, allowing them to see how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. Polls from the beginning of the year, they show, have virtually no predictive power. By mid-April, when the candidates have been identified and matched in pollsters’ trial heats, preferences have come into focus—and predicted the winner in eleven of the fifteen elections. But a similar process of forming favorites takes place in the last six months, during which voters’ intentions change only gradually, with particular events—including presidential debates—rarely resulting in dramatic change. Ultimately, Erikson and Wlezien show that it is through campaigns that voters are made aware of—or not made aware of—fundamental factors like candidates’ policy positions that determine which ticket will get their votes. In other words, fundamentals matter, but only because of campaigns. Timely and compelling, this book will force us to rethink our assumptions about presidential elections.
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Two Uncovering Vote Intentions using TrialHeat Polls
Three Thinking about Campaign Dynamics
Four Vote Intentions over the Campaign Timeline
Five From the Campaign to Election Day
Six Sources of Change over the Campaign Timeline
Seven Campaign Dynamics and the Individual Voter
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Adjusted R2 aggregate vote intentions analysis April bounces campaign effects campaign events campaign progresses campaign timeline chapter coefficients convention season correlation cross-sectional variance debates Democratic vote demographic dependent variable economy elec election campaign Election Day vote electoral preferences electorate’s equilibrium Erikson explained variance fall campaign fifteen elections Figure final polls final week fundamentals Gallup George H. W. Bush ideological in-party income growth individual voters interpolated John Zaller lagged vote macropartisanship major-party observed paign panel partisan partisanship party identification percent percentage period platform ideology points poll of polls poll results post-convention pre-convention predicting the vote president presidential approval presidential election probit R-squared random walk readings regression relative Republican respondents RMSE sampling error second convention shift shocks shows simple random sampling slope stationary series statistical survey tion trial-heat polls true variance TSLS estimates two-party vote vote choice vote division voter preferences week’s weekly polls Wlezien