cording to some definite ratio, otherwise it is incapable of proof. We shall not object to it, that, as wages form a very small part of the expenses of a farmer, it would require a great reduction of them to produce a small increase in his profits, and a great rise in them to produce a small diminution in his profits. Nor shall we object to it, that it necessarily leaves undetermined and undeterminable, when wages rise and profits fall, or when the reverse occurs, which is the cause, and which the effect; nor this more serious and fundamental objection:-the real wages are estimated by the price of corn; by this price the farmers' profits are supposed to be regulated; and yet the rise and fall of these profits are stated to be occasioned by the rate of real wages. What is this but saying, that the real wages of the labourer, which depend on the price of corn, are the cause of the rise and fall of the profits of the farmer? or, in other words, are both cause and effect! We shall not urge these objections, because at present we are not examining the general doctrine. We shall confine ourselves to the facts, and endeavour to shew, that they are not stated in all their circumstances. In the first place, the wages of the labourer are measured by their power over the purchase of wheat, and they are said to be greater or less, according as they enable him to purchase more or less of it. Why is not the same standard applied to the profits of the farmer?-Why is an increase in the mere money price of his wheat set down as an increase of his profits; and a diminution in the money price, as indicating a diminution of his profits? The same standard ought to be applied to both; either the money received for wages and wheat, or the power of money, in both cases, over commodities. If the real wages of la bour, though advanced from 12 to 18 in money, are in fact no higher, because wheat has advanced from 60s. to 90s., neither are the real profits of the farmer, if, while he gets the latter price for his wheat, he be obliged to pay 50 per cent more for what he buys. He can live no better than he did, and he can save no more than he did. But there is an omission of a much more material circumstance than this: the profits of the farmer are estimated by the price of his wheat alone, and not, as they undoubtedly ought to be, by the price of his wheat multiplied into the quantity of wheat he has to sell. What a different aspect does the fact wear, when exhibited with all its circumstances! If a farmer sells a quarter of wheat for 90s. instead of 60s. he receives 50 per cent more for that quarter; but if his produce is only 24 bushels per acre instead of 36, a little calculation will convince us, that though the price of wheat has risen from 60s. to 90s., his profit remains the same. Similar remarks may be made with regard to the impossibility of ascertaining the proportion of the produce, or of the value of the produce obtained by husbandry labourers, by means of the imperfect facts supplied by those tables, as it is evident that this proportion must depend not solely on the wages and the prices of wheat, but on the price of wheat multiplied into the quantity produced. We may further observe, that there is no necessary connexion between fluctuations in the real wages of labour, or their command over produce, and fluctuations in the proportionate share of the produce or the value of the produce raised by them, which their wages will procure; a simple case will shew this; let us suppose wheat to rise from 40s. to 60s., the quarter and wages from 1s. to 1s. 6d. a-day. It is evident that the real wages of the labourer are not altered. Let us now suppose that when wheat is at 40s. the produce per acre is four quarters, and that when it is at 60s. the produce is only two quarters; that is, in the first instance, L.8 the acre; and in the other, only L.6. It is obvious that the wages of the labourer, in both instances enabling him to purchase the same quantity of wheat, in fact give him the command over a greater portion of the produce of an acre of land, and of the value of that produce, in the latter instance than in the former. His real wages, and his share of the produce, would remain stationary, though his money wages advanced from 1s. to 1s. 6d., if, while wheat rose from 40s. to 60s., the produce remained the same; and his real wages would remain stationary, while his share in the produce would be diminished, if, while wheat rose from 40s. to 60s., the produce per acre rose above four quarters. Again, if his wages remained at 1s. while wheat advanced from 40s.to 60s., it is evident that his real wages would have fallen, though, if along with this rise in the price of wheat the produce had fallen from four quarters to two, his share of the produce, or of the value of the produce, would have been increased. But to conclude this digression, what then becomes of all the inferences drawn from tables, which exhibit only the price of wheat, and not also the quantity sold, in support of the doc trine, that when wages rise, profits must fall, and when wages fall, profits must rise, since such tables do not exhibit all the facts on which profits can be calculated? Let us next suppose that all the circumstances attendant on any particular measure or occurrence are faith fully and fully stated, and that all the consequences resulting, not only immediately, but ultimately and permanently, not only to a particular branch of commerce, but to national prosperity, are also faithfully and fully stated there is still a source of error to which Practical Political Economists are liable. They are apt to substitute inferences for facts. "The utility of the distinction between them," observes a sensible and ingenious author, "is very perceptible in all questions of national policy. In public affairs there is commonly such a multiplicity of principles in operation, so many concurring and counteracting circumstances, such an intermixture of design and accident, that the utmost caution is necessary in referring events to their origin; while in no subject of human speculation, perhaps, is there a greater confusion of realities and assumptions. It is sufficient for the majority of political reasoners, that two events are co-existent or consecutive. To their conception, it immediately becomes a fact, that one is the cause of the other. These remarks serve to shew, what at first sight may appear paradoxical, that those men, who are generally designated as prac tical and experienced, have often as much of the hypothetical interwoven in their opinions, as the most speculative theorists. Half of these facts are mere inferences, rashly and erroneously drawn. They may have no syste→ matic hypothesis in their minds, but they are full of assumptions, without being aware of it. It is impossible that men should witness simultaneous or consecutive events, without connecting them in their imagination as causes and effects. There is a continual pro pensity in the human mind to establish those relations amongst the phenomena subjected to its observation, and to consider them as possessing the cha racter of facts. But in doing this, there is great liability to error, and the opinions of a man who has formed them from what Lord Bacon calls mera palpatio, purely from what he has come in personal contact with, cannot but abound with rash and fallacious conclusions, for which he fancies himself to have the authority of his own senses, or of indisputable experience."* There are two classes of cases in which mere practical men are most liable to confound facts and inferences; the first is, where an event is preceded by a single circumstance; the other is, where an event is preceded by several circumstances. The first does not occur so frequently as the second, nor is it so liable to lead us into error; it happens, however, sometimes, that two events are simultaneous or consecutive, to which we assign the respective names of cause and effect; whereas we either mistake the one for the other, or regard them in this relation, though in fact they are both effects of some latent and unnoticed cause. If any very striking occurrence takes place which strongly draws our attention and interests us, and this has been ac companied or preceded by any remarkable event, the mind imperceptibly unites them as cause and effect. The flash and report of a gun, the light "Essays on the Formation and Publication of Opinions, and on other Subjects""Essay on Facts and Inferences." This little volume is much less known than it deserves to be; it is distinguished for a clear, successful, and interesting application of intellectual and metaphysical inquiries to the most important practical purposes. The subsequent work of the same author, "Questions on Metaphysics, Morals, Political Economy, &c." is of very inferior merit; the thought from which it sprung is good, but the plan and execution are very defective. ning and thunder, are set down as respectively cause and effect, by those who are unaccustomed to them. There are many similar instances in Political Economy, where two events are regarded as cause and effect, where there is either no such connexion between them, or where both are effects proceeding from one unobserved cause. Sometimes the effect is mistaken for the cause; what opinion is more common than that a free constitution will render men enlightened, free, and prosperous? This mistaken notion has led to the foolish expectation, that, in or der to give civil, religious, and political freedom to a state, it was only necessary to decree that the power of the sovereign should be limited, the people should be represented, discussion on all topics allowed, &c. The advocates for this opinion appeal to what they call facts; they appeal to Britain and America; these countries, they say, have free constitutions, and the people are enlightened, free, and prosperous. The consequence seems to them to follow naturally; the state of the people is the effect of their constitution, therefore give the same constitution to other people, and they will also become enlightened, free, and prosperous. viewed otherwise, they will only lead to error and vain or mischievous actions. So with respect to real freedom, and a free constitution; real freedom must first spring from circumstances which enlighten men, and teach and enable them to expand their views and wishes, and to know and appreciate their rights and capabilities. This will pro duce not only the forms, laws, privileges, and protections, of a free con stitution, but infuse into all these such an animating and influential spirit, as will, in its turn, act on the state of the people, and increase their freedom. The other class of cases, in which mere practical men are liable to confound facts and inferences, comprehends all those where an event is preceded by several circumstances. In such instances a mere practical man is apt to be bewildered and led astray, especially if it happens (as it often does) that his prejudices, or his individual interest, lead him to fix on one circumstance, without examina tion or inquiry, to the exclusion of all the others, as the only real and effi cient cause. Numerous cases of this kind are continually occurring: one may suffice. Soon after the establish ment of peace, there was a very great depreciation in the price of agricultu ral produce, and consequently in the rent and value of land. What was the cause of this? The circumstances immediately preceding, were a change from war to peace-the renewal of commercial intercourse with foreign powers-diminished taxation and expenditure-the return to cash payments-and two or three abundant harvests. Each of these preceding events was separately and exclusively assigned as the cause of the depression of agriculture: and each party appealed to what they called facts. Agricul ture flourished during war, and while we were shut out from the continent: This unfolds to us another source of error, in collecting what are called facts; it not unfrequently happens that what has been the cause becomes the effect, and it is very necessary to attend to the period and circumstances of this change in the character of the event. Britain contains the most numerous and the best modes of conveyance of any nation in the world, but it is evident that these must facilitate commerce the inference seems fair and sound; make similar modes of conveyance in another country, and its commerce will also flourish. Here is an instance of misapprehension of facts, or rather of the connexion between cause and effect, from not at--it languishes now that there is peace tending to the change of character in consecutive events to which we have alluded. The process seems to be, a certain stimulus given to industry, enterprize, and the consequent acquisition of a certain portion of capital; these lead to the formation of roads, canals, &c. and these, in their turn, in crease industry, enterprize, and capital. The facts viewed in this light and connexion are useful and important; and intercourse with the continent; the case is clear; here is double proof an event occurring under certain circumstances, being co-existent with those circumstances, and disappearing when they do. The advocates for the other opinions argued in a similar manner. Such is the worth of what is usually styled facts and experience. How the real truth is to be obtained in such cases, we shall afterwards in 214 The Political Economist. Essay III.-Part I. quire, when we investigate the mode by which the science of Political Economy can be placed on the basis of general principles, and those principles deduced from well-ascertained causes and effects. This will form the subject of two more portions of this Essay, one relating to the general investigation of the mode in which we arrive at truth, in the principal departments of human knowledge, and to the nature of the evidence on which they are founded; and the other, applying the results of this general investigation to the department of Political Economy, considered as a science. We cannot better conclude this part of our Essay, in which we have endeavoured to estimate, at their real and just value, what are called the facts and experience of practical men in Political Economy, than by the following quotation from Mr Stewart, in which he points out and expatiates upon the contrasted effects of statistical and philosophical studies on the progress and the interests of society, and which, it appears to us, exhibits a striking and happy instance of exuberance of thought, conveyed in his peculiarly exuberant and flowing style: "From these considerations, it would appear, that in politics, as well as in many of the other sciences, the loudest advocates for experience, are the least entitled to appeal to its authority in favour of their dogmas; and that the charge of a presumptuous confidence in human wisdom and foresight, which they are perpetually urging against political philosophers, may, with far greater justice, be retorted on themselves. An additional illustration of this is presented by the strikingly contrasted effects of statistical and philosophical studies on the intellectual habits in general: the former invariably encouraging a predilection for restraints and checks, and [Aug. all the other technical combinations of CHAPTERS ON CHURCHYARDS. CHAPTER III. WITHIN a short distance of my own habitation stands a picturesque old church, remote from any town or ham let, save that village of the dead contained within the precincts of its own sequestered burial-ground. It is, how ever, the parish church of a large rural district, comprising several small hamlets, and numerous farms and cottages, together with the scattered residences of the neighbouring gentry; and hither (there being no other place of worship within the parish boundary) its population may be seen for the most part resorting on Sundays, by various roads, lanes, heath-tracks, coppice and field-paths, all diverging from that consecrated centre. The church itself, nearly in the midst of a very beautiful church-yard, rich in old car ved head-stones, and bright verdure, roofing the nameless graves-the church itself stands on the brow of a finely wooded knoll, commanding a diversified expanse of heath, forest, and cultivated land; and it is a beautiful sight on Sundays, on a fine autumn Sunday in particular, when the ferns are assuming their rich browns, and the forest trees their exquisite gradations of colour, such as no limner upon earth can paint-to see the people approaching in all directions, now winding in long straggling files over the open common, now abruptly disappearing amongst its innumerable shrubby declivities, and again emerging into sight through the boles of the old oaks that encircle the churchyard, standing in their majestic beauty, like sentinels over the slumbers of the dead. From two several quarters across the heath, approach the more condensed currents of the living stream; one, the inhabitants of a far distant hamlet, the other, comprising the population of two smaller ones, within a shorter distance of the church. And from many lanes and leafy glades, and through many field-paths and stiles, advance small groups of neighbours, and families, and social pairs, and here and there a solitary aged person, who totters leisurely along, supported by his trusty companion, his stout oak staff, not undutifully consigned by his neglectful children to that silent companionship, but willingly loitering be hind to enjoy the luxury of the aged, the warmth of the cheerful sun-beams, the serene beauty of nature, the fruitful aspect of the ripening corn-fields, the sound of near and mirthful voices, the voices of children and grandchil dren, and a sense of quiet happiness, partaking surely of that peace which passeth all understanding. And sometimes the venerable Elder comes, accompanied by his old faithful helpmate; and then they may be seen once more side by side, her arm again locked within his as in the days of courtship; not, as then, resting on his more vigorous frame, for they have grown old and feeble together; and of the twain, the burthen of years lies heaviest upon the husband, for his has been the hardest portion of labour. In the prime of life, during the full flush of his manly vigour, and of her healthful comeliness, he was wont to walk sturdily onward, discoursing between whiles with his buxom partner, as she followed with her little ones; but now they are grown up into men and women, dispersed about in their several stations, and have themselves young ones to care and provide for; and the old couple are, as it were, left to begin the world again, alone in their quiet cottage. Those two alone together, as when they entered it fifty years agone, bridegroom and bridealone, but not forsaken-sons, and daughters, and grandchildren, as each can snatch an interval of leisure, or when the labours of the day are over, come dropping in under the honeysuckle porch, with their hearty greetings; and many a chubby great-grandchild finds its frequent way to Grannum's cottage; many a school truant, and many a toddlin' wee thing," whose little hand can hardly reach the latch of the low wicket, but whose baby call of "flitcherin' noise an' glee" gains free and fond admittance. And now they are on their way together, the old man and his wife.-See! they have just passed through the last field-gate leading thitherward to the church. They are on their way together towards the house of God, and towards the place where they shall soon lie down to rest "in sure and certain hope," and they lean on one |