FIG. 10.-Per cent of men and women students receiving first degrees and advanced degrees in universities, colleges, and technological schools. 1894-1918.

Nation is becoming better educated from year to year as measured by the number of graduates receiving first degrees from college.

It is of interest to compare the proportion of men and women receiving degrees from universities and colleges. (Practically all degrees granted by professional schools are conferred on men, and so have not been included in this diagram.) In figure 10 it will be noted that in general the proportion of men receiving both first degrees and advanced degrees has decreased since 1894. Conversely, the proportion of women graduates has increased. These facts show

1914

1916

1918

80

.90

100

1885-1889 the slope of the graduate curve is not as steep as that for the population, indicating that the population during this period increased more rapidly than the number of students receiving first degrees from colleges and universities. Since the latter period the number of college graduates has increased much more rapidly than the total population. This fact unmistakably indicates that the

that the rate of increase in college graduation is more favorable to the women. It should be carefully noted in this connection that the number of men receiving first degrees has been about double the number of women receiving baccalaureate degrees, while the number of men receiving advanced degrees has been about four times as great as the number of women receiving such degrees. The effect of the war in reducing the percentage of men receiving degrees in 1918 is clearly in evidence, the curves for men falling abruptly in 1918 and those representing women graduates rising with an equal angle of inflection.

COLLEGE GRADUATES LIVING.

In Table 5 an attempt has been made to secure an approximate statement concerning the number of college graduates in the United States in 1918. This information is not collected decennially by the Bureau of the Census, nor has any attempt been made to enumerate the "brains" of the Nation. From the statistical reports of the Commissioner of Education the number of graduates receiving their first degrees from universities, colleges, technological schools, and professional schools has been ascertained for each year since 1870. In several instances it has been necessary to resort to estimates, which are held to be substantially correct. Only those graduates from professional schools have been included who had not already received a previous degree. It is believed, therefore, that the figures contain no duplicates. No attempt has been made to antedate 1870 in securing the number of college graduates, as all persons graduating before that date are probably over 70 years of age, and very many of them are not now on active duty. Further, as only 41 per cent of the graduating class in 1870 are estimated to be living in 1918, still smaller percentages of those graduating earlier than that date will now be living. Another consideration operating to cancel these omissions is that many college curricula offered in years preceding 1870 do not compare favorably with the diversified and thorough curricula offered to-day. It is believed, therefore, that for all practical purposes the table presents reliable statistics on the number of college graduates living in 1918. The total number of students. graduating from college from 1870 to 1918, inclusive, is 1,058,527. Of this number, 908,469 are estimated to be living in 1918. In other words, almost 86 per cent of those graduating within this period of 49 years are still living. This percentage does not take into account the number of these graduates who have become incapacitated for active duty.

The estimated total population in 1918 is 105,253,300. There is, therefore, one college graduate living to-day for every 116 persons in the total population. If only the population 23 years of age and

FIG. 11.-Number of pupils surviving to each grade of the elementary school, high school, and college for each 1,000 that begin. The bars, except the first, include retarded and accelerated pupils.

over is considered, the ratio becomes 1 college graduate to every 61 adults.

The death rates applied in securing the number of survivors have been taken from the United States life tables prepared by James W. Glover in 1910 for the Bureau of the Census. As college graduates should be better able than average citizens to guard and conserve their health and, therefore, to promote longevity, it is probable that the number of survivors is slightly too low. At present there is no known method of compensating for this minor error.

In computing the number of survivors it has been assumed that each class graduated at the age of 23. In the earlier years the usual age of graduation was a little over 23 years and in the later years a little under this age. Some, of course, graduate earlier; others later. These factors are practically compensating, if the average or median age of graduation has been chosen correctly.

TABLE 6.— Method employed in ascertaining college and university survival percentages.

2 These percentages are based on the returns from 313 colleges of liberal arts which reported their enrollment by classes for the autumns of 1916 and 1917 (see Higher Education Circular No. 9, April, 1918, Bureau of Education). It is assumed that the percentages for 1916 held for 1915 and that those for 1917 hold for 1918. The reduction in the percentage of students enrolled in the first and fourth year of college between 1916 and 1917 was undoubtedly due to the war.

3 In the report on State school systems a series of survival percentages for elementary and secondary schools is shown. If the factor ofretardation is omitted from consideration these percentages become: First grade, 1,000; second grade, no data; third grade, no data; fourth grade, no data; fifth grade, 1,000; sixth grade, 830; seventh grade, 710; eighth grade, 634; first year high school, 342; second year high school, 246; third year high school, 181; fourth year high school, 150; and high school graduates (four-year schools), 139. In the accompanying text it is shown that 51.7 per cent of those graduating from a four-year high school enter college, or 72 out of the original 1,000.

SCHOOL AND COLLEGE MORTALITY.

For public high schools it is estimated that 93.7 per cent of all graduates have completed a four-year course, while for private high schools it is estimated that the corresponding percentage is only 89.2. It is also found that 28.6 per cent of those graduating from a four-year public high school go to college, while 40.1 of the graduates from four-year private high schools go to college the year following graduation. In 1914 160,606 students graduated

from public and 20,303 students from private high schools. Applying the percentages given above (93.7 and 89.2) to these totals, respectively, it is found that 150,488 students completed a four-year public high-school course and 18,110 students a four-year private high-school course in 1914, making a total of 168,598 students who were undoubtedly eligible to enter college in the fall of 1914. From public high-school statistics it is found that 28.6 per cent of the graduates of four-year schools will attend college the year following graduation. For private high schools the corresponding percentage is 40.1. Applying these percentages to the number of graduates given above, it is found that the public high schools send to college immediately 43,040 students, while the private high schools send an additional 7,262 students, making a total of 50,302 students. Theoretically at any rate high-school principals think that this number went to college immediately after graduation from high

school in 1914.

The college returns show that the freshman class in collegiate work contained 87,088 students in 1914-15, which is 36,786, or 73 per cent, more than the high schools knew they had sent. This great discrepancy is probably due to two reasons: First, the highschool principal may not always know how many graduates go to college, as students may move from the community after graduation or a new principal may not be able to supply the data desired; second, students may not enter college immediately upon graduation from high school but at some later date. It is definitely known, however, that out of the 168,598 high-school graduates in 1914 an equivalent of 87,088 students were enrolled in the freshman classes at college the following fall. Some of these, of course, are repeating a part of the first-year collegiate work, but such students are relatively few in number and, therefore, are not deserving of consideration in this study. It is seen therefore that about 51.7 per cent of the graduates from four-year high schools go to college at some time. This percentage is highly significant in that it forms a connecting link between the elementary and high school survival percentages on the one hand and those for colleges and universities on the other. In a footnote to Table 6 it is shown that 139 pupils will graduate from a four-year high school for each 1,000 that entered the first grade 12 years earlier. This transitional percentage (15.7 per cent) shows that 72 out of these 139 high-school graduates will go to college. Table 6 shows that 52 of these will become sophomores; 39, juniors; 30, seniors; and 23 will graduate. Thus it is seen that only 13.9 per cent of those entering the first grade will graduate from a four-year high school, and only 2.3 per cent of the original number will complete a college course.