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February, 1905

PUBLISHED MONTHLY.

NUMBER I

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THE men who provoked the war with Japan unquestion-

ably counted on plucking from success in that enterprise
increased security for the Russian Autocracy against in-
ternal discontent, as well as ample gains for themselves.
But the engineers have been hoist with their own petard,
and the failure on which they did not reckon has so quick-
ened the forces of revolution as to place the Autocracy and
the system which it sustains in imminent peril. The events
of the past month have demonstrated that the most danger-
ous foes of Russia are those of her own household. In an-
other sense, that was true before the war began, because
the arrogance and corruption of the grand ducal clique
which really directs the affairs of Russia over the head of a
weak and vacillating Emperor, were responsible for the
naval and military incompetency which has cost Russia so
dear. But now that the Government has met the attempt
to exercise the right of petition with slaughter so brutal and
indiscriminating as to have aroused the indignation of the
world, there are a thousand irreconcilable malcontents in
Russia for one that was to be found before. That Russia
cannot maintain an army large enough to keep in check a
victorious foe four thousand miles away, and another suffi-
cient to restrain the angry discontent which pervades the
entire nation at home from assuming the character of organ-
ized revolt, appears sufficiently plain. It must be equally
plain that there is as little heart for their business among
the majority of the soldiers at the front as there is for the
butchery of their brethern on the part of those who are kept
on guard in the disturbed districts in European Russia.
That under such circumstances the Czar and his Ministers
should not make haste to settle on the best terms they may
with a victorious enemy and an exasperated people suggests
the form of madness which leads to destruction. With the
fall of Port Arthur was extinguished the last gleam of hope
of regaining, by the aid of the Baltic fleet, control of the
sea, and the aimless cruise of that fleet in the Pacific mere-
ly postpones the final catastrophe. The dilemma which pre-
sents itself to Admiral Rojestvensky is a sufficiently dis-
tressing one. But there is no visible alternative for him
except to submit to making a substantial contribution to the
naval strength of Japan or to return home. The utter fail-
ure of Gripenberg's attempt to outflank Oyama is merely
another illustration of the hopelessness of the expectation
that Russia can possibly regain her lost position in
Manchuria. Under the circumstances, persistence in the
war can only involve fresh sacrifice of human lives, as pur-
poseless as it is criminal.

SECRETARY HAY sent out a circular note last month, which
we reproduce on another page, whose bearing on the ulti-
mate settlement to be reached in the Far East is sufficiently
obvious. The note was designed to enlist, once more, the
efforts of the great powers in preserving the integrity of

2

JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN ASIATIC ASSOCIATION

It

China, after the present war shall have run its course. was prompted by an apprehension conveyed to this Government through entirely trustworthy channels, that the conclusion of peace between Russia and Japan might be made the occasion, by one or other of the great powers, of largely extending their spheres of interest or of sovereignty in China. The note elicited the most emphatic disclaimers of any such intention from all the powers to which it was addressed, and, fortunately enough, the disclaimer appears to have been most emphatic in cases where the policy of aggression might have been assumed to be most in favor. While neither of the belligerent powers was appealed to for the purpose of committing it to respect the integrity of the Chinese Empire in any post-bellum settlement, it is safe to assume that Japan will do nothing to bring about the dismemberment of China which she went to war to prevent. Such hold as she may elect to retain over the leased territory of the peninsula, and such initiative as she may insist on claiming in regard to the administration of Manchuria, would simply be precautions to enable China to resist any further attacks on her territorial integrity. The nations whose policy in North China is exclusively commercial, have nothing to fear from Japan, and can regard with entire equanimity the effect on the future of China of any terms of peace which she is likely to dictate.

SECRETARY HAY's note to China in regard to the Russian protest as to her observance of neutrality, was later in point of time than the circular note to the powers in regard to the integrity of China, though in point of publication it came earlier. It is eminently characteristic of Russian methods that the Government at Pekin was not fully aware of the terms of the indictment which had been brought against it till the text of Russia's note was telegraphed from Washington. The reply of China left her accuser with no ground to stand on, but Russia, not having yet accustomed herself to the new conditions established in the Far East, professes the same scorn of any assertion of Chinese individuality as she has always done. The Russian Ambassador in Washington having met the rejoinder of China by a simple reiteration of the original charge, Mr. Hay suggested that a conference of the powers be held to pass upon the whole subject. It was obviously intolerable that an unproved accusation should be used by Russia as a basis for assuming a hostile attitude toward China, and there was therefore obvious force and justice in Mr. Hay's contention: "The interests of so many powers being deeply affected by the continuance and observance of the neutrality of China, and their keen solicitude for the maintenance of that neutrality and its observance by both the belligerents having been so conspicuously manifested on many occasions, the Government of the United States does not at this moment feel that it is called upon to express an isolated judgment or to consider the adoption of an individual course of action looking to the conservation of that neutral status which we all desire." Of course, Russia desiring neither the preservation of the neutral status nor the investigation of the accusations she had brought against the Chinese observance of neutrality, did not take kindly to Mr. Hay's suggestion.

We publish elsewhere the full text of the new commercial treaty between Portugal and the Chinese Empire. We have accompanied it by copious annotations showing which of its clauses are identical with those of the preceding treaties concluded with Great Britain, the United

States and Japan. As all of these nations will have the benefit of the most favored nation clause in any treaty concluded with China, the only interest of the Portuguese treaty consists in whether it contains any concessions of value which were not included in preceding treaties. We think that a careful inspection of it by our readers will convince them that it does not. The missionary clauses are unusually full and explicit, but they do not appear to guarantee any rights or privileges not already enjoyed by other nations. The convention with Portugal in regard to the construction of the Canton-Macao Railway which we also reproduce in full, is perhaps the least advantageous to the concessionnaires of all the agreements of a similar character which have yet been made with the Chinese Government. If all the new bargains about railroad construction are to be drawn under similar conditions, it may be questioned whether there will be in the immediate future any notable addition to their number.

FROM the American point of view, nothing could be more satisfactory than the elimination of the controlling BelgoFranco-Russian interests from the American China Development Co., and the consequent certainty that the work of constructing the Hankow-Canton Railway will be prosecuted under purely American auspices. The history of this enterprise, which we reproduce from the Washington correspondence of the Journal of Commerce, has been a decidedly checkered one, but the Company is now in hands sufficiently strong and trustworthy to warrant the belief that there will be no future deviation from its original character and purpose. American enterprise in China would have been seriously hampered by the permanent denationalizing of the American China Development Co., and its prospects will be correspondingly improved by the demonstration that the capitalists of the United States are not at all indifferent to the opportunities presented to them for taking a part in the development of a regenerated China.

A CONVENTION of Southern cotton growers was held at New Orleans the other day to devise means for arresting the shrinkage of value which has taken place in that staple and for considering means of providing enlarged markets for American cotton textiles. The convention agreed to memorialize Congress to appropriate $2,000,000 for the purpose of equipping a commission to study and report on the opportunities presented by the markets of the Orient and South Africa for the consumption of our cotton cloth. That a commission composed of practical manufacturers and merchants might do as good work at least, as the Blackburn or the Lyons Commission did in China is not open to question. In fact, the opportunity for such an investigation being much more inviting than it ever was, and the chances of making a thorough study of the great interior markets of China so much more numerous, no better time could be selected than the present for the appointment of an American commission. But it is probably visionary to expect Congress to appropriate any such sum for the work as has been asked, though it should not be at all visionary to procure such a concert of action between the Government and the cotton growing and cotton manufacturing interests of the country as would result in the formation of a commission partly composed of representatives of the Government and partly of representatives of these interests, to whose expenses a contribution should be made by both.

1672

Exports of Domestic Cotton Cloths, Mineral Oils, and Wheat Flour from the United States to China and Hongkong, during the twelve months ending December 31, 1903 and 1904.

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Imports of Tea and Silk into the United States for the twelve months ending
December 31, 1902, 1903 and 1904.

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THE INTEGRITY OF THE CHINESE

EMPIRE.

WASHINGTON, January 26.—An important contribution to international history was made today when the State Department removed the seal of secrecy from Secretary Hay's note to the Powers with reference to a suspected compact on the part of some unnamed nations to demand Chinese territory when peace came between Russia and Japan, and furnished the announcement that the responses received so far had been favorable. All the neutral Powers have answered, but nothing came from Belgium or Portugal, the two smaller nations addressed. Russia and Japan were not made parties to the correspondence.

Mr. Hay's communication was in the form of a circular telegram sent on January 13 to the American ambassadors to Germany, Austria, France, Great Britain and Italy, and the American ministers to Belgium and Portugal. In it Mr. Hay frankly intimated the suspicion that a compact to disturb Chinese integrity had been formed, and directed that the views of the United States in opposition to any such arrangement be brought to the attention of the Governments to which they are accredited. The text of the responses was not made public, but their substance was given by the Department in this brief note appended to Mr. Hay's telegram:

"Replies to this circular telegram have so far been received from the Governments of Germany, Austria-Hungary, France, Great Britain and Italy, entirely agreeing with the position taken by the Government of the United States and declaring their constant adhesion to the policy

of the integrity of China and the 'open door' in the Orient." The text of Mr. Hay's circular telegram follows: "DEPARTMENT OF STATE, "WASHINGTON, January 13, 1905. "It has come to our knowledge that apprehension exists on the part of some of the Powers that in the eventual negotiations for peace between Russia and Japan claim may be made for the concession of Chinese territory to neutral Powers. The President would be loath to share this apprehension, believing that the introduction of extraneous interests would seriously embarrass and postpone the settlement of the issues involved in the present contest in the Far East, thus making more remote the attainment of that peace which is so earnestly to be desired.

"For its part the United States has repeatedly made its position well known, and has been gratified at the cordial welcome accorded to its efforts to strengthen and perpetuate the broad policy of maintaining the integrity of China and the 'open door' in the Orient, whereby equality of commercial opportunity and access shall be enjoyed by all nations.

"Holding these views the United States disclaims any thought of reserved territorial rights or control in the Chinese Empire, and it is deemed fitting to make this purpose frankly known and to remove all apprehension on this score so far as concerns the policy of this nation, which maintains so considerable a share of the Pacific commerce of China, and which holds such important possessions in the western Pacific, almost at the gateway of China.

"You will bring this matter to the notice of the Government to which you are accredited, and you will invite the expression of its views thereon. 'JOHN HAY."

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NEW COMMERCIAL TREATY BETWEEN CHINA AND PORTUGAL.

ARTICLE I.

(Signed November 14, 1904.)

The Treaty of Amity and Commerce between China and Portugal, dated the 1st December, 1887 (17th day, 10th moon, 13th year of Kuang-Hsü), together with the Special Opium Convention attached thereto, continues in force, except in so far as modified by the present Treaty.

ARTICLE II.

Portugal accepts the increase in the import duties stipulated for in Article VI of the Peking Protocol of 7th September, 1901. Portugal will enjoy the privileges of the most favored nation, and in no case shall Portuguese subjects pay higher or lower duties than those paid by the subjects of any other foreign nation.

Article XII of the Treaty of December 1, 1887, is therefore rendered null and void.

ARTICLE III.

The Government of His Most Faithful Majesty agrees to continue as heretofore to co-operate with the Government of His Imperial Chinese Majesty in the collection of the duty and likin on opium exported from Macao to China, and also to co-operate in the repression of smuggling in accordance with the Treaty and Special Opium Convention of 1st December, 1887.

In order to render this co-operation effective, it is clearly stipulated that all opium imported into Macao shall on arrival be registered at the special Portuguese Government Bureau provided for this purpose, and the Portuguese Government will take the necessary steps in order to have all this opium stored under its exclusive control in one depot, from which it will be removed as required by the demands of trade.

The quantity of opium required for consumption in the territory of Macao will be fixed annually by the Government of Macao in agreement with the Commissioner of the Imperial Maritime Customs referred to in Article II of the above mentioned Convention, and under no pretext will removal from the Portuguese Government depot be permitted of any quantity of opium for local consumption in excess of that fixed by the said Agreement.

Necessary measures will be taken to prevent opium removed from the depot for re-export to any port other than a port in China being sent fraudulently into Chinese territory.

The rules for the carrying out of this Article shall be arranged by the two High Contracting Parties.

The Portuguese Government will enact without delay a law providing penalties for infraction of the regulations agreed upon between the two High Contracting Parties.

ARTICLE IV.

Such steps as are necessary for the repression of smuggling in the territory and waters of Macao shall be taken by the local Portuguese Government in concert with the Commissioner of the Kung Pei Kuan Customs, and similar steps in the Chinese territory and waters near Macao shall be taken by the said Commissioner of Customs in concert with the Government of Macao. This co-operation is intended to render such steps effective on all points in respect of which co-operation is needed and to avoid at the same time any injury to the sovereign rights of either of the High Contracting Parties.

Special delegates from the local Government of Macao and the Imperial Maritime Customs shall proceed to fix the respective spheres of preventive measures, and shall devise practical means for the repression of smuggling.

ARTICLE V.

With a view to the development of steam_traffic between Macao and neighboring ports in the Kwangtung Province, the High Contracting Parties have agreed as follows:

1. Portuguese steamers desirous of conveying goods or passengers from Macao to any of the Ports of Call and Passenger Stages on the West River enumerated in the Special Article of the Burmah Convention of 1897, and in Article X of the British Treaty of Commerce of 1902, shall be permitted to do so, provided they comply with the special regulations to be framed for this purpose by the two High Contracting Parties.

2. Steamers specially registered for traffic under the Inland Waters Steam Navigation Rules shall be permitted to ply between Macao and ports in the department of Kwang-chow-fu, other than those mentioned in Section 1, provided they report to the Kung Pei Kuan Customs for examination of cargo and payment of duties in accordance with the special regulations to be framed for this purpose by the two High Contracting Parties.

3. Such vessels may engage in all lawful trade, including the towing of junks and the conveyance of passengers and cargo, subject to the regulations for the time being in force.

4. The privileges hereby granted are granted on the express understanding that special regulations shall be framed defining in detail the conditions under which such traffic may be carried on. Until the said regulations have been agreed upon and published this article shall not become operative, and, subsequently, shall remain so only so long as the said regulations are complied with.

5. The Portuguese Government will enact without delay a law providing penalties for infraction of the regulations agreed upon between the two High Contracting Parties.

ARTICLE VI.

Portugal having the right of most favored nation treatment, it is clearly stipulated that any advantages China may think fit to grant to the products of any other nation shall be extended to similar goods of Portuguese origin on exactly the same conditions.

It is also clearly understood that Portuguese wines of all kinds, proved by means of Portuguese certificates of origin, visés by Portuguese Consuls, to have been imported directly or indirectly from Portugal, shall when their alcoholic strength exceeds 14° pay the duty leviable according to the annexed Tariff on wines exceeding 14° of alcoholic strength. Wines passed through the Chinese Customs under the designation "Port Wines" shall not be entitled to the benefit of this Article unless accompanied by a certificate of origin as above.1

Conversely, Chinese subjects shall enjoy in respect of their imports into and exports from Portugal all privileges and immunities granted to the subjects of the most favored nation.

ARTICLE VII.?

Portuguese subjects may frequent, reside at, and carry on trade, industries and manufactu es, and pursue any 'See tariff annexed to U. S. Treaty, 1903, p. 166. 2See U. S. Treaty, 1903, Art. III.

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