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The Spirit of Inference

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HEN we meet a man with a new overcoat all spick and span and of the latest fashion, we are apt to assume that the coat concealed by it is equally correct. We are likely to believe that, until further acquaintance with the man proves that theory is true or false. In other words, we infer that the man who cares enough for his personal appearance to impress strangers favorably will be discriminating in those further articles of dress seen by his more intimate associates.

The advertisement that comes out strong at one point sets up the spirit of inference-for good-providing there are no rags or marks of shabbiness sticking out beyond the edge. It is the point that pleases us that first attracts our attention and we are willing to infer that the advertiser who has taken this first step in catering to our likes is ready to back up his goods with further efforts. Some details of his attire may not exactly suit our individual taste; it will be faultless in his own eye, we are sure of that; in other words, he takes enough pride in himself to do his best and we are predisposed to believe well of him till we see something to the contrary.

Advertising, and, in fact, all forms of salesmanship, involves this spirit of inference to a marked degree. A single point well made, though it does not by any means exhaust the subject, is enough to create the impression of quality. If the subject is, for instance, watches, and we are told about nothing but some special point of excellence in some one adjustment, we think well of the entire watch because we infer that no one would be foolish enough to put so much ingenuity and expense on one adjustment if the rest of the watch were not well up to the same high standard

of excellence. We know at heart that we may be wrong in this inference and probably would not buy without further proof; still we come into the inquiry expecting to have our original belief confirmed.

The value of one-point advertising well done depends to a great extent upon this same spirit of inference. A single merit well exFressed may for a time so far attract the attention that all other points are out of the running; still, sooner or later, they will be remembered and taken into account. Be as sured that we will not forget them for any length of time. However, with the one point well made, we feel that we can afford to let the others pass for the time being, not beCause we are only interested in the one, but because we infer, from the skill with which it is taken care of, that the others will be treated with at least equal care. The exponent of the leading quantity applies in our mind to the whole equation until we have time or opportunity to dissect it.

It is the spirit of inference that throws the glamour of public confidence about the politician who has first made himself conspicuous by a strike for honest government. We are ready to attribute honesty of purpose to his next effort. If there is any doubt about it he gets the benefit of the doubt, because we have from his first public service drawn a favorable inference as to his honor. Some men have traveled far in high respect on the credit they have received from one good deed. Sooner or later they must make good in popular expectation or cease to travel. strength of inference, however, is demonstrated by the fact that they have been able to travel on it at all.-Erchange.

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Advertising Interests

Monthly Letter from U. S. Capital.

F the recent events in governmental circles having bearing directly or indirectly upon advertising and kindred interests perhaps the most significant is found in the announcement that Uncle Sam has begun preparations for the enforcement of the new Net Weight Law. It is suspected that many advertisers, manufacturers, etc., are not even aware that such a law has been placed on the Federal statute books and yet it is one which will be almost revolutionary in its influence. The Net Weight Law, which was signed last March, but will not go into effect until eighteen months from that date, requires that the quantity of the contents of all food packages shall be plainly marked on the outside of each package in terms of weight, measure or numerical count. How widespread will be the application of this new mandate as to the labeling of an important class of advertised goods may be surmised from the fact that more than 40,000 food manufacturers are now catalogued in the U. S. Department of Agriculture, and this list may be considerably extended ere the new law goes into effect.

As the first step in making ready for this new order of things in the merchandising field the three Cabinet officers who have jurisdiction -that is the Secretaries of the Department of Commerce, Department of the Treasury and Department of Agriculture-have appointed a committee to draw up regulations for the enforcement of the new law. Manufacturers and advertisers are to be heard on all the questions involved and because there are so many of these firms with whom it is desired to consult before proceeding with the new project is one reason why the date for the enforcement of the new law has been set so far ahead.

Another reason for allowing so much leeway is that the average manufacturer of advertised package goods usually has on hand a considerable quantity of labels, printed boxes or other containers-perhaps as much as a full year's and it is the desire of the government to allow all firms an opportunity to work off

supply

this printed matter before enforcing the new law, which will, in almost all instances, call for the printing of new labels, cartons, etc.

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The committee charged with the responsibility of drawing up the regulations for the Net Weight Law will be glad to receive recommendations and suggestions in writing from advertisers and manufacturers at any time. addition, public hearings will be accorded all interested manufacturers, dealers and others who may desire to express themselves orally. The first hearings will be held in New York City early in June, and other hearings will follow whenever and wherever there is sufficient demand.

One important phase of the preliminaries is the determination by the government of what percentage of shrinkage shall be allowed under the regulations in the various classes of package goods. Of course, almost all food

products, as well as many other commodities, shrink or lose weight owing to lapses of time, changes of temperature, the exigencies of handling and transportation, etc. But the loss varies widely in the case of different classes of products.

In order to accord equitable treatment to all manufacturers, Uncle Sam's experts will have to make tests with all the different kinds of package goods. This they are preparing to do and furthermore they will tcst the automatic weighing and bottle-filling apparatus in use in plants and factories where food products are prepared for market.

Another angle of the situation of vast importance to manufacturers is found in the effect of the new law upon package inserts. There has been during recent years a rapid growth of the practice on the part of advertisers of enclosing inserts of various kinds in package goods, that is using every article or package sold as a medium for advertising that or other lines put out by the same house by means of booklets, leaflets, coupons, prizes, etc.

Obviously the weight of all such matter will have to be deducted to afford the net under the

new law, and it is possible it will even be found that the new governmental regulations will restrict or hedge about, to some extent, the privileges which manufacturers have previously enjoyed in this direction.

Agricultural advertisers will await with some interest the outcome of the mission of that large delegation of American financiers, farm experts, etc., who will this summer make an extended tour of Europe to investigate the operation of the various systems of rural credits which obtain in the Old World. It has come to be generally realized that something must be done for the farmers of the United States in the line of more advantageous rural credits. Inasmuch as any change of status that stimulates the farmer's ambitions and expands his buying power is reflected in the market for advertised goods, it goes without saying that future developments are a matter of deep con

cern.

Advertisers may feel inclined to smile, although it is assuredly no laughing matter, over the announcement that if the Supreme Court of the United States is enabled to continue to make such progress as it has made this past year in "catching up" with the docket, a stage will have been reached within the next three years when the nation's highest tribunal will be enabled to decide cases within a year of the time they are submitted for its consideration. Even this promised millenium of court decisions within a year may seem pretty slow work in the estimation of the energetic business man; but it would unquestionably be some improvement over the present state of affairs when two or three years are required to obtain the "last word" from the court of last resort.

Time and again within recent years advertising, manufacturing and merchandising interests have been compelled to "mark time" for long intervals when awaiting pronouncements from the U. S. Supreme Court. And the interests of advertisers are far more vitally affected by such decisions than the uninitiated might suspect.

Take, for example, the question now before the court involving the right of a "cut-rate" retailer to sell patented articles at less than the restricted price. This case calls in issue the basic principle of the right of the manufacturer and advertiser to fix and enforce a uniform resale price and so well has this come to be realized that the manufacturers of Sanatogen,

who took the case to court, are not being compelled to argue it single handed.

Such well known advertisers as the Gillette Safety Razor Co., the Waltham Watch Co., and the Victor Talking Machine Co. have, as it were, made common cause with the Bauer Chemical Co., the manufacturers of Sanatogen and have, by leave of the Supreme Court, presented arguments supplementing those made by the lawyers for the Bauer Co. in support of the right of a manufacturer to control prices and conditions of sale.

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Mr. Burleson, the new Postmaster General, declines, at this juncture, to express himself regarding the future of the Parcel Post. Not only is he unwilling to forecast the policy of the Department and the administration regarding this the newest branch of the postal system, but he is even averse to expressing his own personal opinion in the matter. Mr. Burleson takes the ground that inasmuch as the Parcel Post is now under investigation by a joint Congressional commission which is going very thoroughly into all the problems of the "zone" system, the extension of the weight limit and the readjustment of rates, it would be in a sense discourteous for the head of the postal establishment to seem to anticipate the findings of this special investigating body in any respect.

Meanwhile the business of the Parcel Post continues to grow at a pace which has all but dumfounded even the most sanguine officials and it is expected that further stimulus will be imparted when the "collection of delivery" feature of the service is inaugurated July 1. In the meantime there is scurrying to get adequate equipment to handle the parcel business.

The Comptroller of the Currency has decided that the former Postmaster General was not warranted, under the law, in contracting for the motor trucks, which he ordered in the closing days of the last administration for use in the transfer of Parcel Post mail in the large cities. This means that there is additional need that Congress make, as the present special session, some definite provision for enlarging the facilities of the new package delivery service.

Speaking of the special session, it may be noted that bills affecting advertising interests continue to be dropped into the legislative hopper by ambitious statesmen; whereas there is scant chance that any of them will become laws at this present session, the offerings are

not without interest as indicating the trend of public opinion.

Representative Campbell has reintroduced the bill which he put forth at the last session (and which was not acted upon then) which makes it unlawful for any firm, company or corporation to place on the market for foreign or interstate commerce any product of manufacture which does not carry the name and address of the manufacturer. If the later cannot be printed, embossed or stenciled on the article itself, it must be placed on the wrapper or package containing the article.

This measure has provoked violent opposition in some quarters. Though it might prove detrimental to the best interests of some advertisers, there is every chance that it would be distinctly beneficial for others, inasmuch as it would be the means of familiarizing the consumer public with the source of the various private brands with which department stores, etc., now compete for the trade in standard advertised good

The U. S. Bureau of Domestic and Foreign Commerce has been asked to notify American manufacturers of agricultural equipment and supplies of all kinds that a National and International Agricultural Exhibition will be held at The Hague during the first half of September of the present year, constituting one of a series of exhibitions which are to be held in Holland this summer and autumn in celebration of the 100th anniversary of the nation.

Firms desiring a share of the rapidly developing trade in the Netherlands and adjacent European countries, might find it of advantage to be represented at this exposition. Its broad scope is attested by the fact that American exhibits are sought for such classes as those in the poultry section, embracing breeding machines, incubators, utensils, egg testing and sorting machines, etc.; the rabbit section, including buildings and requisites; the dairy section-utensils and appliances; the soil improvement section covering all tools employed for clearing land and improving soil; the agricultural implements section, which takes in agricultural machinery of every kind and description; and the agricultural buildings section, which will have to do with all manner of farm buildings and building materials.

Advertisers who desire further particulars regarding this exposition may obtain any desired information by addressing the Secretary

of the Royal Netherlands Agricultural Society, 42 Buitenhof, The Hague.

Now that explosives are being successfully employed, not only for clearing land but also in drainage work on the farm, in lieu of plowing, and for a wide range of agricultural service, it is becoming evident that the rural domain is henceforth to be one of the most profitable markets for manufacturers of powder, etc. And that the manufacturers are rapidly awakening to this fact is attested by the aggressive and extensive advertising campaigns of the Du Pont Company and other firms in this field.

However, there is one governmental source of aid and publicity which seems to have been to some extent overlooked by the promotion interests, and that is the U. S. Bureau of Mines -a comparatively new but very important branch of the U. S. Interior Department.

The Bureau of Mines does not, of course, concern itself with the use of explosives in farming operations, but it is conducting, all the while, tests and experiments with high explosives the results of which might readily be translated into terms of benefit for agriculturists who use powder to blast stumps, break up soil, etc. For example the Bureau of Mines has only recently devised and constructed an inexpensive bullet-proof magazine for the storage of powder and other explosives on farms, in forest regions, etc.

One of the gravest problems which has confronted the users of powder in the West, and other regions where hunting is indulged in extensively, has been to discover suitable storage places where the explosives would be secure from stray bullets. The bullet-proof magazine which the Bureau of Mines has provided as an object lesson for powder manufacturers and users, is built of cement mortar and has proven, under severe tests, that it is all that could be desired. Moreover it presents a form of construction which can be quickly carried out in any locality at an expense of only a few hundred dollars.

Inquiries received at Washington indicate that many advertisers who are wont to make use of mailing lists of carefully selected names are keen to obtain, if possible, the lists of well-to-do citizens in various localities which will be afforded by the data gathered by the government in connection with the collection of the new income tax.

Inasmuch as all persons who receive incomes in excess of $4,000 per year will, under the new law, be duly enrolled on Federal tax lists it goes without saying that these new lists of tax payers will afford an ideal roster of "prospects" for advertisers of goods calculated to appeal to people of means.

It is, at this writing, however, just a little doubtful as to whether the public will be allowed access to these new lists. Nothing has been definitely determined as yet in the premises.

But it may be remembered that in the case of the Corporation Tax, inaugurated a few years ago, the governmental officials have steadfastly refused to make public any of the information submitted by corporations as to their earnings, etc.

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On the other hand, advertisers who are anxious to gain access to the lists of citizens having incomes above the $4,000 mark, argue that there is a precedent for giving out such information in the present policy of the Post Cffice Department with reference to the socalled "newspaper law." This law requires publishers of newspapers to file sworn circulation statements at Washington.

The Post Office Department does not print in any official publication the information vouchsafed by publishers, but any person who makes request in writing may have the information on file as to the circulation of any specified newspaper or group of newspapers.

In The Daily Grind

By ALBERT E. PHARO

T is not the dollar spent in advertis-
ing; it is the idea behind the dollar
that does the work."

The reason I repeat this to myself a million times a day, pressing meanwhile on the basso-profundo pedal, is because I know of one place and I believe several places-where it has actually doubled the advertising appropriation.

The case I have in mind is that of a young fellow on whom I call frequently. He is the advertising manager of a factory, selling goods all over the country. The goods are low priced, they are not protected by patents or trade marks, they pay only ordinary profits, and the advertising appropriation is ridiculously small, considering the scope of the country and the amount of work done.

But he makes good. He covers and works his whole territory. He justifies the expectations of the retail dealers whom he helps sell, and he maintains the prestige and the value of his advertising department.

He does this so well, and makes such a loud, resounding, and continuous blast upon the horn of publicity, that it is the general belief of solicitors and advertising men who call upon him that his advertising appropriation is fourfold what it really is.

He is a devoted worshipper at the shrine of Ideas. And it is his firm belief that a bright idea, clothed by the printing press

in plain black, is just as effective as a an ordinary conception elaborately dressed in fourteen lithogrophic colors and wonderfully cheaper.

Economical management and practical efficiency, are also hobbies of his, which he rides at the speed limit, and which he develops to their utmost capacity.

Yesterday I called and found him busy on a series of newspaper advertisements which he is preparing to run.

"What do you think of 'em?" said he. "Great!" Said I. "Those wide borders flare forth like a comet at midnight. They pull the eye towards them as irresistibly as a pretty face attracts the masculine optic. But, I fear me you are getting extravagant. You have spent good coin drawing both pictures and borders, when the pictures alone would have done the work."

"They are last year's pictures, Alberto," said he, "slightly changed, and with heavy border effects. Their effect is absolutely new, novel, effective, and I save me some fifty plunkos on them.”

The pages of every advertising journal make sad and frequent mention of the "tons of advertising literature" which fill the undercounter space in retail stores.

My friend makes no complaint on this score. He prints tons of matter, it is true. But he has trained his customers to ask for

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