vested this year if no further damage occurs. The condition of the winter wheat acreage May 1, 1912, is 79.7 against 86.1 last year, a difference of practically six points, and also against a ten-year average of 85.2, a difference of 52 points. In winter rye the condition on May 1, 1912, was 87.5 against 90 last year, a difference of 22 points, and 89.2, the ten-year average, a difference of slightly less than two points.

This damage, of course, is considerably more than is desirable, but when everything is taken into consideration it is not as serious as might appear at first glance. It is always possible to determine whether or not a crop of winter small grain will be profitable in plenty of time to plant the ground to some spring crop. That is just exactly what is happening this season. Approximately 6,500,000 acres of winter wheat was abandoned. The greater part of this, in fact, all of it, has already been seeded to oats or will be planted to corn, so that the land while abandoned so far as winter wheat is concerned, will be utilized for either corn or oats, and unless all signs fail, the return from these crops will be almost, if not quite, equal to those which would have been obtained if the winter wheat had lived. Of course, the farmer loses his seed and the time used in putting it into the ground. This is quite a serious matter to him but so far as the business of the country is concerned it amounts to practically nothing for the farmer will have approximately as much money to spend as if his wheat crop had developed.

It is peculiarly unfortunate for business interests generally that every spring about as soon as the snow leaves the ground, so-called experts representing the grain exchanges of the country begin a systematic attempt to kill off the growing wheat solely in order to influence prices on the various boards of trade. Every item of crop damage is magnified and spread broadcast so as to create distrust and force up prices in order that the operator may take profits. Usually after this campaign has been well started, the opposite tactics are employed and every item which tends to prove that the wheat crop is coming out in splendid shape is used in exactly the same way. Prices are forced down on the boards of trade and the gamblers take another profit. Following a cold winter such as the one just ended is an especially opportune time for the manipulator on the board of trade. Farmers, and particularly peo

ple inclined to speculate, feel that cold weather is detrimental to winter wheat, consequently they are in a very receptive mood and when the so-called crop expert from the Pullman car, and possibly also from the limousine of a comfortable automobile, begins his devastating career, the seed falls on fertile grounds and it is no difficult problem to create a miniature panic, boost prices to the limit and induce even those who ought to be better informed to believe that we are on the border line of a famine period, simply because a portion of the winter wheat crop has been killed. It is just as easy a few weeks later to do the other thing. Now, as a matter of fact, there is always more or less winter killing. Every season sees considerable acreage abandoned. It is no new thing for the crop expert to report irreparable damage and for the country during July and August to harvest a crop fully equal to the needs of the consuming public with a neat surplus for export. Why is it, then, that every spring the ordinary staid business man is influenced by the stories emanating from a man whose earning capacity depends upon his ability to be a good press agent for the board of trade gambler who wants to push prices up or down? It is about time that we get away from the dominating influence of men who speculate in food products.

I have just returned from a quite extended trip up through Wisconsin, Minnesota, the Dakotas, Manitoba and Saskatchewan, an area devoted very largely to the growing of spring grains. Before I left Illinois I was fully convinced that the season in the central and lower Mississippi valley was from two to three weeks late. When I got into this northwest country, however, I found that with the exception of a few counties along the northern line of North Dakota, a few in northern Minnesota and a somewhat limited area between the international border to possibly 35 or 40 miles north of Winnipeg the season was fully up to the average and in some cases a little bit ahead. In the territory just mentioned, seeding operations were delayed somewhat because of too much rain just at this time. It is probable that the acreage seeded will not be quite as large as normal, but everyone knows that the success of the northwest depends upon an abundant supply of moisture in the soil prior to the putting in of the seed. Not in 25 years have conditions been more favorable for the storing up of moisture than at present. Begin

ning last fall, rains thoroughly soaked the soil. There was a moderate amount of snow and this spring more rain had added to the total moisture supply so that with anything like an even break so far as precipitation is concerned a maximum crop will be produced in the great spring wheat, oats and flax regions of the United States and Canada. In all probability the greater yield made possible by the abundance of moisture will more than offset the decrease to a somewhat smaller acreage.

Coming back to the middle west, the chief interest now centers in the corn crop being planted and the oats crop, all of which has been seeded. It is not possible to determine the acreage of oats, but all county reporters indicate that the acreage will be bigger than usual because of the ground made available through the loss of winter wheat. Part of this abandoned area, of course, is being planted to corn, but probably more than 50 per cent of it was seeded to oats. Everywhere, even where the oats went into the ground a little later than usual, reports come of the plant being in especially good condition. This crop delights, during its early growth, in cool, moist weather -conditions that have obtained since the growing season opened. Seed grew well, plants are thrifty and there is an abundance of moisture, and everything points to an exceedingly heavy crop. The fact that seeding was delayed from two to three weeks later than usual will have no detrimental effect for the reason that the cool, wet weather so necessary during the early weeks has been present, giving the plant the desired start. It will, therefore, be ready to mature at about the usual date.

The problem is a little more difficult with corn, although the condition is not at all serious. The delay of from two to three weeks in corn planting means a good deal during a drouthy year, but if the season is normal most of the area devoted to corn will mature this crop before frost appears. In the northwest where corn is now being grown quite largely, the season is not late, consequently the part of the country most likely to be damaged by frost will undoubtedly be up to and possibly a little ahead of the average season.

So it comes about that the crop outlook so far as our major grains are concerned is quite satisfactory. To the far-seeing man who takes everything into consideration the season is full of promise and there is nothing alarming ahead. The man who is influenced by sensa

tional reports is apt to be slightly disturbed, but no level-headed business man will hesitate to go ahead and manufacture his normal output. He knows that with the favorable conditions now existing, the net returns from the land will be fully up to the average and with many chances in favor of being better than usual.

The condition of the minor crops, also, has a decided bearing on the business situation. Meadows and hay lands on May 1 were in better condition than at the same time last year, although slightly below a ten-year average. Pastures were practically the same on May 1, 1912, as last year, but about four points below a ten-year average. These hay and clover crops, however, have been making wonderful progress during the last few weeks, due to an abundance of moisture. Without doubt, the output from grass land will be heavy. The unfortunate part of the proposition is that new seeding of timothy, common red clover and alfalfa were seriously injured by the cold weather. This was hardly expected, but it must be remembered that the season of 1911 was an unusual one. The drouth was so severe that all these grasses and clovers went into winter quarters in a weakened condition. Encountering an unusually severe winter, it is not surprising that considerable damage was done. Old meadows and well established pastures were not seriously hurt, however, and the returns from these will be large. In some sections it is reported that stock was turned on to grass a little too early because of the exceeding shortage of feed. The continued wet weather, however, will enable these pastures to recuperate and the damage will not be permanent.

The sugar beet crop is becoming exceedingly important from Michigan to the Pacific coast. In California and Colorado, the two largest sugar beet states in the Union, conditions are very favorable. The California crop, of course, is well along and with the exception of one or two localities where rainfall was short in February, the outlook is exceedingly good. Going east, conditions for the development of the crop are entirely satisfactory, but seeding will be delayed a little because of the inability to get the land in proper condition, due to the late melting of snow and frequency of rain during the opening months of spring. The bulk of the crop in Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, etc., is planted along during the early part of June so that there is plenty of time for putting in a

maximum acreage and getting from this a very big return. The interest in sugar beets continues to increase. Factories are going up every year, and as farmers become more and more familiar with this crop, which requires intensive cultivation, they are securing correspondingly large returns. If congress does not remove the tariff on sugar, the future of this industry is assured. Millions upon millions of dollars, which formerly went to the sugar beet growers of the old world, are now being paid to the American farmer.

As was stated in a recent issue of AGRICULTURAL ADVERTISING, the outlook for fruits for 1912 is good, with the exception of some of the tender varieties of cherries and of peaches. This statement still holds. From every source the information comes that it is now pretty certain that a big crop of apples will be harvested. There is only one contingency which must be reckoned with. During the blossoming period, in parts of Illinois, Missouri and Michigan, heavy rains fell. Some growers fear that the pollen was washed away at a critical time and that possibly the total yield will be somewhat limited. As bloom, however, was abundant, it is easily within the possibilities that the crop will be a big one, and as the two previous crops have been comparatively moderate ones, the profits from growing apples ought to be large. Cold storage supplies are low and a large amount of fruit will be absorbed. Peaches were damaged in many places. In some sections the buds were killed and the damage ex

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tended even to the trees themselves. peach is a tender fruit and it is not surprising that after a severe winter more or less injury should be reported. Small fruits promise well everywhere.

Live stock has come through the winter in fair shape. Much of it was a little thin, due to the scarcity of feed and the long, cold winter. The animals were healthy, however, and when turned on pastures began to pick up rapidly and make good gains. Most hog men complain of small litters. It was impossible to care for the sows at farrowing time well enough to prevent loss during the cold, wet weather of April. The same is practically true of sheepmen, although the loss of lambs is not proportionately as great as of pigs. Colts are doing well and the same is true of calves. The shortage in hogs and sheep is becoming very marked, as indicated by the high prices paid at the primary markets. Horses continue very high, as do also mules. It would seem that the maximum of profit is to be made during the next few years from farm animals judiciously handled. There is every encouragement for a more extensive interest in live stock. High prices for beef cattle are here to stay, and the same is true of horses. Hogs and sheep can be increased more rapidly, but it is a pretty safe conclusion that during the next four years at any rate, the man who puts on the market good hogs and good sheep will be handsomely rewarded.