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Importing countries

Cotton: Estimated imports into specified countries, by countries of origin, crop year 1948-49

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Source: Office of Foreign Agricultural Relations, U. S. Department of Agriculture. Estimates based upon available data on imports to date, known trade agreements, and general knowledge of the situation through reports of U. S. Foreign Service officers and results of research. Apr. 1, 1949.

Mr. PACE. Proceed with your statement, Doctor.

Dr. FITZGERALD. It is a little premature, Mr. Chairman, to estimate with any degree of precision the volume of possible cotton exports in 1949-50; that is, the next fiscal year. The preliminary appraisal that we are now in the process of making with respect to the 1949-50 ECA program and the probable exports and availabilities from other sources of supply does indicate that if continuing progress is made in western European economic recovery, there will be some further increase in the exports of American cotton in 1949-50.

Mr. PACE. If I might interrupt you there, in order that you might help us all you can, this committee is called upon not only to project its thinking into 1949-50, but even into 1959-60. In other words, by way of illustration, one of the things this committee must consider in redrafting the marketing quota laws, for example, is whether or not we should fix a minimum on the national acreage of cotton in this Nation or whether or not the future is so uncertain that the best we can do is simply to put it in the discretion of the Secretary without any maximum or any minimum. As you know, now there is a minimum in the law.

Dr. FITZGERALD. Yes, sir.

Mr. PACE. Of a little better than 27,000,000 acres. The Congress, as you know, is hesitant about putting unlimited discretion in the hands of an administrative officer, and that is one of the very important things this committee must decide as to what the future of cotton is, not only for the domestic but the export market, in order that we can dare to try to fix a minimum acreage for the Nation, or a maximum, either.

I know the difficulty you have for 1949-50, but I hope you appreciate the difficulties we have for hereafter, and I might further interrupt you to ask suppose that they take this 21⁄2 million bales. next year and take 21⁄2 million bales in 1949-50, what, in your judgment, is the prospect of their taking that much or more in the years to come?

Dr. FITZGERALD. Mr. Chairman, of course, like this committee; when we start talking about 1959-60, we are all crystal-ball gazing, as you well know. As I view the entire period, it seems to me there are two and possibly three considerations that are involved. In the first instance, there is the question of what is likely to happen to the production from other sources of supply.

One of the major sources, as you know, Mr. Chairman, is India and Pakistan. It would be my guess that cotton production in India and Pakistan will not expand very rapidly. It may not expand at all in the next 5 to 10 years.

My reasons for coming to that conclusion are that the populations of India and Pakistan are expanding very rapidly. Their population growth is at the rate of about 5,000,000 people a year. Their food supplies are particularly limited, and their plans over the next several years are to concentrate particularly on the expansion of foodstuffs or the rapidly increasing population.

There are some very tentative plans in mind for expanding the irrigated area in India, but the first priority that will be given to that expanded irrigated acreage, according to all the information we have, is food production rather than cotton production.

Mr. PACE. Mr. White told us that, in his judgment, he thought they were more interested in acquiring processing machinerytextile machinery-than they were in seeking export outlets.

Dr. FITZGERALD. I think that is correct.

Mr. PACE. In order that they might raise the standard of living of the whole people.

Dr. FITZGERALD. I would agree with that.

Another major source of cotton exports, of course, is Brazil. It is extremely difficult for me to come to any firm conclusions about trends in cotton acreage in Brazil. There are, unquestionably, rather large areas of land in Brazil which could be used to expand the acreage of cotton, but recent trends in that country have been down.

There has been a very large movement of farm population in Brazil from the country to the cities. Rio, São Paulo, and other large cities in Brazil are expanding very rapidly, and the farm population is moving away from farming occupations at the present time.

Cotton production in Brazil competes, in part, for labor with the coffee industry. At the present time, prices for coffee are up, and I think for the next several years prices for coffee are going to be quite attractive. I think there will be cotton producers in Brazil that will compete rather vigorously with the coffee industry for labor, and there is, I believe, a rather substantial opportunity for the expansion of cotton production in Brazil through mechanization, through the use of machinery-not necessarily cotton-picking machinery but general machinery. But whether the economic incentives to use machinery to expand the production of cotton in Brazil will exist in sufficient force, I hesitate to say. My personal opinion is that you will not have a very rapid recovery of cotton production in Brazil.

Mr. PACE. Do you have anything on Russia at all?

Dr. FITZGERALD. Not nearly as much as we would like, Mr. Chairman. This year's reports are that the cotton crop in the U.S. S. R. was not very good and a good deal of it was not harvested or was harvested under rather unsatisfactory conditions and the quality is poor. We do know that in recent months Russia has been a rather important factor in certain exporting countries, for example, India. About a year ago now, they exchanged some 200,000 tons of wheat for a considerable quantity of cotton from Egypt.

There is a very large demand for cotton in the countries just east of the iron curtain-Hungary, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia, which, from such indications as we can get, cannot obtain their requirements from the U. S. S. R.

Mr. PACE. In your judgment would it be the disposition of the Soviet Government to try to expand its production adequately to take care of its satellite countries such as Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Rumania, and so on?

Dr. FITZGERALD. Yes sir; it would be my guess, that the U. S. S. R. would try to do that.

Mr. PACE. Do you find in your work any information that indicates. a disposition on the part of Russia to permit them to satisfy their demands beyond what Russia itself is able to satisfy with American cotton, or will they go into other markets rather than the American market?

Dr. FITZGERALD. The tendency will be for eastern European countries to go to other markets to the extent that supplies are available in those other markets, Congressman Pace, because, generally speaking, these countries are short of American dollars to buy American cotton; but there is a demand today existing in Hungary and in other eastern European cotton countries for American cotton. The limiting factor is their ability today to pay for it in dollars. We are quite sure of that, because we have had one or two instances come to our attention in which an eastern European country has suggested that it furnish to a participating country some of the supplies that that country needs and, in return, that country furnish American cotton to the eastern European country.

Mr. PACE. What is the disposition of your office on that question? Dr. FITZGERALD. We would have no objection to that arrangement, Congressman Pace.

Mr. PACE. Provided it was exchange of something that would contribute toward the rehabilitation of the participating country?

Dr. FITZGERALD. Yes, sir. In the particular instance which occurs to me at the moment, the participating country was very badly in need of oil. One of the eastern European countries indicated they could furnish edible oil, and that they would be glad to furnish edible oil if in return they could obtain some American cotton in exchange; and we would approve that arrangement.

Mr. ABERNETHY. Mr. Chairman, may I ask a question?

Mr. PACE. Mr. Abernethy.

Mr. ABERNETHY. What portion did you say would be shipped to the participating countries? Was it 2,500,000 bales?

Dr. FITZFERALD. Yes, sir; that is my estimate.

Mr. ABERNETHY. Some of which you stated would be financed through Marshall plan funds, and some with free dollars.

Dr. FITZGERALD. Yes, sir.

Mr. ABERNETHY. I asked this question the other day, but it could not be answered at that time. What percentage of that 2,500,000 bales would be financed with Marshall plan dollars and what percentage with free dollars?

Dr. FITZGERALD. I should like to verify this, but a rough calculation is, I should say, between 80 and 90 percent, which would be Marshall plan, ECA financed.

Mr. ABERNETHY. Do those countries purchase any cotton from other sources with their own finances?

Dr. FITZGERALD. The Marshall plan countries?

Mr. ABERNETHY. Yes, sir.

Dr. FITZGERALD. The ECA-financed countries, or Marshall plan others?

Mr. ABERNETHY. ECA-financed.

Dr. FITZGERALD. Yes, sir. They purchase cotton from other

sources.

Mr. ABERNETHY. With our dollars, or their money?

Dr. FITZGERALD. With their exchange, primarily with sterling, sir. They are not using ECA dollars to buy outside this country.

Mr. ABERNETHY. Approximately what quantity would they purchase with sterling and other means of exchange as compared to that which they would purchase from us?

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