Disposal of the space Afghanistan, and outposts within striking distance of Herat, "the key of India." She has since been consolidating her position, and is now waiting for a conjuncture which will enable her to fulfil her self-announced destiny in Central Asia, and secure for herself a practically conterminous frontier with India along the watershed of the Hindu Kush. She would then be in a position to fetter England's action in Europe by making the continuance of the pax Britannica in India dependent on her goodwill towards us as a neighbour in Asia. That Russia and England have long been gravistill inter- tating toward each other in Central Asia is a matter between of history. That either can easily conquer and India. hold Afghanistan, the region intervening between vening Russia and them, is a fact recognised by both Powers, as well as by the Afghans themselves. Whether it would be wise for either to do so is a question on which there is still division of opinion. The initial expenses would be heavy, but the net cost of occupation would also be large, say four or five millions annually-so poor and difficult is the country, so intractable the barbarous Muhammadan tribes of its northern and more important half. A conterminous frontier would greatly increase the recurring deficit, because further costly preparation would be necessary against the possible intrigues and attacks of the rival Power. Thus from a purely business standpoint both Russia and England should maintain their present political frontiers. As a fact, a powerful party in Russia and the most forward school of politicians and soldiers in England and India seek a nearer approximation, the former under the conviction that their country will thereby become offensively stronger against India, and the latter with the hope that England's great Asiatic dependency will by such means be less assailable by Russia. for con Postulating that Russia's advance towards India Questions will be continued whenever opportunity offers, until sideration. she is certain that one step nearer must constrain us to declare war against her, we have to discover the line up to which, if not already reached, we may possibly permit her to push forward without the arbitrament of war. On the assumption that that line has not yet been attained by Russia, we have further to consider whether we should occupy and annex, or only mediatise, if possible, the still intervening space--we ourselves standing fast inside our present political frontier. If an advance by Russia is held to necessitate a corresponding forward move on our part, then under what conditions and to what localities should it be made? Would it not be wiser in any case that England should spend what India can afford on completing the defences of her present frontier, and leave her huge impecunious rival to waste her resources in conquering and holding the whole or greater part of Afghanistan? Could we honourably and safely do so? Does not our engagement with the Amir bind us to defend the integrity of his kingdom against encroachment by Russia? If so, how can Statement of subjects of notice. we give effect to that guarantee, and should we and would we do so? As answers to these questions largely depend on and order the relative powers, present and prospective, of injuring each other, possible to the two rival empires, as well as on the probable action of the Afghans should one or both occupy strategic positions in their mountains, it will be advisable before attempting to come to conclusions on the subject to give some account of ourselves in India, as well as of the Russian and Afghan peoples, and their respective countries and governments. It will further be advisable to examine in some detail the position on our North-Western frontier, and to briefly notice the chain of events which has brought two great European Powers face to face in the wilds of Central Asia. 7 CHAPTER II. INDIA RESTIVE UNDER MACHINE RULE. INDIA STRONG IF SYMPATHETICALLY GOVERNED--DISCONTENT ON THE strong if content. THE history of our growth from small traders to India rulers of a vast and populous empire is familiar to loyal and all Englishmen. Our nation generally is accustomed to believe that India being statistically prosperous her people are loyal and contented, and that if there be some ill-conditioned classes who are not so, the fault is theirs, not ours-Sua si bona norint. If our self-complacency rests upon a sure foundation, England in India will be strong enough to defend her great dependency against any external enemies, should they seek to disturb her peace. Were an invasion imminent, or in progress even, Discontent on the in crease. we may feel confident that, under wise and sympathetic government, her 250 millions of unwarlike agriculturists would continue quiescent and lawabiding, scratching the soil, harvesting their crops, and paying their heavy taxes in silent submission, as long as their local officers remained at their posts. As to the remaining 50 millions, two-thirds of whom are a fighting peasantry concentrated in the Panjab, Oude, and Rajputana, and scattered in the other provinces of the peninsula, we may be equally assured that their young men would enlist freely and fight faithfully for a Sarkar which, as all India knows, honours its native soldiery as veritable pillars of the State. But, granting all this, what about the postulate? Does the present system of civil administration satisfy the peoples of India; and if so, have they reason to believe in its continuance? Are they collectively, whether directly under us, or under native princes ruling in imperfect imitation of our methods, as contented to-day as they were twenty years ago, or even in the darkest days of 1857, when the mutiny of the pampered and mismanaged Sepoy army left the masses almost unmoved? To such questions the only possible answer must be in the negative. The natives generally are less content and less trustful of us than they were ten, twenty, or more years ago, and yet our administration is still in all probability better, purer, and less selfish than that of any other governing Power in the world. Though physically, no doubt, our hold over India is now |