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The 98 per centum

Someone has remarked that 98 per cent. of men of property have not made wills.

Trust company business is fairly profitable when only two per cent. have wills, and but a portion of those name trust companies as Executors or Trustees.

To what limits may trust companies expand in usefulness as the 98 per cent. are converted to the right idea?

Every trust official knows that as men avail themselves of custodianship, living trust and investor's service, more and larger estates will naturally be created for trust company administration. Those who are acquainted with the painstaking, studious and intelligent work of the Harvey Blodgett Company in developing business extension plans for trust companies, believe that, as the services of this organization are increasingly employed, heavy inroads will be made on the ninety-eight per cent. majority.

Our nearest representative will gladly demonstrate our plans.

HARVEY BLODGETT COMPANY

Executive Offices

UNIVERSITY AND WHEELER AVENUES, ST. PAUL, MINN.
District Offices

25 W. FORTY-third Street, NEW YORK, CITY

724 OLD SOUth Building, BOSTON, MASS.

1044 FIRST NATIONAL BANK BUILDING, CHICAGO, ILLINOIS

BUSINESS SITUATION IN THE UNITED STATES TODAY

FACTS AND FORCES BEARING UPON THE FUTURE

WIXT hay and

T

C. L. BRADLEY

Vice-President, Union Trust Company of Cleveland

grass❞—this rustic metaphor just about describes the condition of general business at the moment this article goes to press. All summer there has been evident a tendency to delay progressive operations until the outcome of the two major strikes.

Strikes such as those through which the country has just been passing never accomplish any economic good, but inevitably bring losses and often serious consequences to everyone directly or indirectly connected with them. After all, WORK is the panacea for most of the world's ailments today, and in the words of Van Dyke, "Heaven may be blest with perfect rest, but the blessing of earth is toil."

It is to be hoped, therefore, that both employee and employer will soon recognize the eternal fact that no real good is ever accomplished through idleness or destruction of property, and that there will be a unified effort through diligent and honest production on the one hand and fairness and honesty on the other to recover those economic blessings which benefit all alike and which can be secured in absolutely no other way.

The Business Revival

The general assurance that such will ultimately be the case has been the chief reason for the absence of alarm as to the permanency of the business revival which has been under way for the past year. The steady decline in wholesale prices seems to have been arrested for the time being at least, and the tendency in many commodities is toward higher levels. This has been particularly true in the steel industry, as a result of the shutting down of some of the blast furnaces and the shortage of finished products.

And the Danger

In this situation, therefore, there is an inherent danger that a business boom may be inaugurated where it would be far better

that there might be a steady business revival based upon a complete and thorough liquidation, which has not yet taken place, and if such a business boom should now result it would seem advisable to move with some caution, lest a boom based upon such un-economic foundations should meet with its inevitable collapse some months hence. On the other hand, it seems to be more and more evident that the tendency over the next several years is going to be forward, with an ultimate return to that condition of normality where the products of labor of similar character may be exchanged for each other on an even basis, which is not now the case.

For the immediate future it seems reasonable to expect marked activity as the Fall advances, and the railroads are likely to have all the traffic they can possibly handle. Already substantial decreases in the number of idle cars on the railroads of the country are being reported, while the resumption of equipment-buying on the part of the railroads, which is likely to follow normal operating conditions, is bound to be reflected in increased industrial activity all along the line.

In the meantime, money continues easy and interest rates are low, and there is no indication that this condition will be materially changed through the months immediately ahead of us. There is also a large amount of capital seeking investment, and the opinion of the investing public, as reflected in activity and prices on the Stock Exchange, can be interpreted only as one of assurance as to the business future. The stock market is pointing as clearly as it can to continued business prosperity, which should be accelerated with the removal of the retarding influences which have obtained during the summer months, as discussed above.

The Condition of Public Utilities In reviewing various classes of industry, one finds most marked improvement in the conditions surrounding public utility com

panies. This is true not only of their earning power, but also as to the attitude of the investing public toward their securities, which have returned to marked favor-with investors seeking employment for their funds in conservative channels. Of course, the improvement of these public utility companies, which serve particularly our larger business centers, is a direct reflex of improved business conditions generally.

More electricity is being consumed for both power and lighting. More gas is being burned, and there are more users of the telephone. The street and interurban railway companies, which suffered most both in earnings and in public esteem during the late depression, are benefiting through decreased operating costs as well as through expansion of their service.

The Tendency in Street Car Fares

In this connection, it is interesting to note a report just issued by the American Electric Railway Association covering 275 cities in the United States with respect to the rate of fare being charged on city street car lines. The average for these 275 cities is 7.37 cents. One hundred and forty cities are charging 10 cents and 28 cities are charging 5 cents, while the remainder charge various amounts from 5 cents to 9 cents, with a transfer extra.

The Farm and Its Problem

Much has been said of the splendid crop prospects and the resultant increased buying power of the farmers when these crops are harvested and brought to market. It is well to point out, however, what I have indicated above, that the purchasing power of farm labor and of farm products is not yet on a par with the purchasing power of other classes of labor of similar character. The Department of Agriculture issued during the month of July figures with respect to the five leading crops, namely, corn, cotton, wheat, oats and barley, indicating a total expectancy for this year of $4,654,000,000. This is over 24 per cent. above the 1913 expectancy at the same time of year, and nearly 13 per cent. above the expectancy at this time last year, but when one takes into account the purchasing power of the farmer's dollar one finds that he is realizing only a little over 81 per cent. of what he got in 1913, and less than 10 per cent. more than what he would have received in 1921.

It is apparent, therefore, that while the

marketing of this year's crops is going to materially better agricultural conditions through the liquidation of farmers' loans, it is not going to result in bringing the farmer up to his normal purchasing power until there has been a' further liquidation in the cost of production and the sale price of the things which he has to buy. The farmer normally represents anywhere from 30 per cent. to 40 per cent. of the buying power of the entire country. On the other hand, there is no doubt that the marketing of this year's splendid crops is going to be a real incentive to further business revival.

The Coal Situation

The outstanding points in the coal situation seem to be an almost certain shortage of anthracite coal during the coming winter and a possible bituminous shortage, which can be averted only by the working of practically all mines at their maximum capacity for several months to come, and the fairly perfect record of distribution on the part of the railroads.

[graphic]

GROUP OF CALIFORNIA BANKERS AT A. B. A. CONVENTION IN NEW YORK

Left to right: P. E. Hatch, Vice-President, Security Trust Savings Bank, Long Beach; J. H. Coverley, Vice-President, Title Insurance and Trust Co., Los Angeles; L. H. Roseberry, Vice-President, Security Trust and Savings Bank, Los Angeles; F. M. Douglass, President Imperial Cotton Mills Co., Los Angeles

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HOMES OF LEADING TRUST COMPANIES OF NEW YORK CITY (1) The Farmers' Loan & Trust Company, of New York; (2) Guaranty Trust Company; (3) Equityable Trust Company; (4) Equitable Building, where Metropolitan Trust Company and Empire Trust Company are located; (5) United States Trust Company; (6) Fidelity. International Trust Company; (7) Lawyers' Title & Trust Company; (8)Manufacturers Trust Company's branch office on lower Broadway; (10) Title Guarantee & Trust Company

དྲང་ང་ང་ང་ང་ང་

Chartered 1822

THE FARMERS' LOAN AND TRUST COMPANY

Nos. 16, 18, 20, and 22 William Street, New York
BRANCH:-475 Fifth Avenue, at 41st Street

LONDON

15 Cockspur Street S. W. I.

26 Old Broad Street, E. C. 2.

PARIS

41 Boulevard Haussmann

The Company is a legal depository for moneys paid into court, and is authorized to act as Executor,
Administrator, Trustee, Guardian, Receiver, and in all other fiduciary capacities.

Acts as Trustee under Mortgages made by Railroad and other Corporations, and as Transfer Agent and
Registrar of Stocks and Bonds.

Receives deposit upon Certificates of Deposit, or subject to check and allows interest on daily balances.
Manages Real Estate and lends money on Bond and Mortgage. Will act as Agent in the transaction of
any approved financial business.

United States depository in London and Paris.

Depository for Legal Reserves of State Banks and also for moneys of the City of New York.

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The history of this Company has run parallel
with that of Philadelphia for one hundred and
nine years, representing all that is solid and
sound in this Cradle of American Liberty.

EVERY TRUST COMPANY AND BANKING SERVICE

THE PENNSYLVANIA COMPANY
For Insurances on Lives and Granting Annuities
TRUST AND SAFE DEPOSIT COMPANY

BROAD STREET OFFICE
Chestnut and Juniper Streets

CHARTERED
1812

517 Chestnut Street

Philadelphia

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