The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies
New Society Publishers, 2005 M08 1 - 288 páginas
The world is about to run out of cheap oil and change dramatically. Within the next few years, global production will peak. Thereafter, even if industrial societies begin to switch to alternative energy sources, they will have less net energy each year to do all the work essential to the survival of complex societies. We are entering a new era, as different from the industrial era as the latter was from medieval times.
In The Party's Over , Richard Heinberg places this momentous transition in historical context, showing how industrialism arose from the harnessing of fossil fuels, how competition to control access to oil shaped the geopolitics of the 20th century, and how contention for dwindling energy resources in the 21st century will lead to resource wars in the Middle East, Central Asia, and South America. He describes the likely impacts of oil depletion, and all of the energy alternatives. Predicting chaos unless the U.S. -- the world's foremost oil consumer -- is willing to join with other countries to implement a global program of resource conservation and sharing, he also recommends a "managed collapse" that might make way for a slower-paced, low-energy, sustainable society in the future.
More readable than other accounts of this issue, with fuller discussion of the context, social implications, and recommendations for personal, community, national, and global action, Heinberg's updated book is a riveting wake-up call for humankind as the oil era winds down, and a critical tool for understanding and influencing current U.S. foreign policy.
Listen to an interview with Richard Heinberg from WRPI.
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At first, incremental investments in social complexity, new technologies, and expanding scope yield impressive returns. Agricultural production increases, and wealth captured from conquest flows freely as the society's increasingly ...
As the marginal return on investment in empire declined, major stress surges appeared that could scarcely be contained ... the barbarian kingdoms began to seem preferable.25 Figure 3: Benefits to a society from investments in complexity.
Figure 3: Benefits to a society from investments in complexity over time. Prior to point C1/B1, benefits are abundant; between points B1/C1 and B2/C2, returns on investments in complexity gradually diminish. After a society passes point ...
The returns on early investments in drawdown and industrial production were staggering. Costs were extraordinary as well, but they could easily be borne. As Tainter puts it, with subsidies of inexpensive fossil fuels, for a long time ...
However, the Europeans had spent many centuries making prior investments in tool making, and so the breakthrough to the production of Class D tools was for them merely the next step in a long evolution of strategic leveraging.
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Review: The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial SocietiesCrítica de los usuarios - Claire Corbett - Goodreads
This book will ruin your life. You will never feel confident or sanguine about the future again. But you must read it. Take the blue pill - or is it the red? In any case, best to wake up but it's a harsh awakening. You can never go back. Leer comentario completo