der, and Bialgorod, both on the Niefter, and which are already in their poffeffion, would, besides a sufficient length of fea-coaft, and a great extent of country, give them the fole command of thefe great rivers, and fhut in the remaining Tartars in fuch a manner, as would totally prevent their future incurfions.

Another part of the great primary defign formed by the court of Peterburg, ftill remains for completion; and is a matter of fuch importance, as to render its issue much more doubtful than those we have already mentioned. The obtaining of a free right of trade to and from the Mediterranean, directly through the Streights of the Dardanelles, is an innovation of such a nature, and pregnant with fuch confequences, as cannot fail to be feriously alarming to moft of the commercial ftates of Europe. Without pretending to enter into the motives which may operate upon the prefent ruling fyftem of policy, it is certain that in the war of the year 1739, the minifters of the maritime powers at Conftantinople, though their refpective courts were directly adverfe in all other politicks to that of Verfailles, in this inftance, coincided with it, and equally oppofed the Ruffians obtaining any fhare of the Levant or Mediterranean trade. Nor is it to be thought that any thing but the most extreme neceflity, and every other hope of preferving a temporary exiftence being at an end, can ever bring the Porte to fubmit to fo fatal a conceffion. The Turkish empire no longer exifts, when Ruffia becomes miftrefs of the Black Sea.

We take thefe to be the outlines of the great purposes, which the court of Peterburg wishes to ac

complish, in confequence of its fuc cefs in this war. To fecure for the future, with little expence, an almost unbounded length of frontier, which has been hitherto badly maintained by lines, and an endless chain of forts; to gain, along with fecurity, a large acceffion of new territory and new fubjects; to acquire a great and extenfive commerce; and to become a first-rate maritime power, are objects adequate to fuch fuccefs.

The Grand Signior has borne with amazing firmnefs, the heavy loffes and misfortunes of the war; nor have his licentious foldiers, nor tumultuous fubjects, gone to those extremities, which past experience of their conduct would have given room to expect, under fuch a series of calamities. Neither have these mighty evils, nor the dangers with which he is furrounded, difturbed the equanimity of this Prince's mind, or precipitated him in the manner of his ancestors, to acts of injustice, violence and cruelty; on the contrary we fee, that with a lenity before unheard of at the Porte, the most unfortunate of his commanders (except in the fingle inftance of the capatan-pacha or high-admiral) not only escape with their lives, but without any other punishment than their removal to other departments, from thofe offices in which they were unfortunate. The fame moderation is obfervable to his Chriftian fubjects; and notwithstanding the rebellion of the Greeks, and the unheard of violences and barbarities they committed, we hear of no vengeance that he has taken, either upon the perfons or goods of their inoffending brethren. The villainies committed by the failors and deferters, or the mifchiefs occafion

ed

ed by the rage of the populace in great cities, are out of the question; they being equally outrages to government as to the fufferers, and as fuch, feverely punished at different times. Such enormities, in lefs trying and lefs heating circumstances, have been too often practifed in countries, where a more perfect form of government, and a purer religion were boafted.

Whatever the confequences of the war may be, this Prince has not hitherto departed from his proper dignity to avoid them; and if he has not a confidence in fome fupport with which the public are unacquainted, his conftancy in this inftance is truly remarkable.. We find, notwithstanding the unparal leled loffes of the prefent year, that he is making every preparation to fupport the war, and to carry on the enfuing campaign with vigour; and it has been rumoured that he intended to command the grand army in perfon.

The Turks are, however, no longer the fame; and it would require more than the abilities of the Czar Peter to make them again great; as it is much easier to civilize the favage and inftruct the ignorant, than to reclaim the degenerate from rivetted ill habits. This vaft, ill founded, and unwieldy empire, feems indeed nodding to its fall, and nothing but its fituation could fupport it much longer. Its European pof feffions bring it, in a confiderable degree, within the fyftem of the great European republic; a happy circumftance at prefent to the Ot

tomans.

The noble provinces of Greece, the Afiatic Turky, and Egypt, to. gether with the numerous Mediterranean islands, the Signory of the

Black Sea, and its adjoining provinces, from fituation, products, and numberless other advantages, might become in any other hands, and any other form of government, the center of commerce, riches, and power; and the greatest empire perhaps in the world. Even a divifion of the spoil would totally change the face of affairs in Europe; and perhaps caufe as great a revolution in riches, power, and commerce, as the dif covery of America did. While the indolence, religious principles, and wretched policy of the Turks, prevent their making a proper ufe of thofe bleffings, which fortune has fo fruitlessly beftowed upon them, it is the general intereft of the rest of Europe, that they fhould continue in fuch improvident hands. In any other, fuch powers would have been dangerous, if not fatal.

It may perhaps be worth remembrance, that within little more than two hundred years, a bold pirate, with only the fcum and outcasts of the Levant, became fovereign of the fea, deftroyed and founded kingdoms, and made half the fhores of Europe tremble. The military genius and knowledge of the Turks are now extinct. They are no lon ger terrible; and befides the fafety that arifes from their weakness, and from their ignorance in maritime affairs, the commercial ftates carry on an advantageous trade for and with them; and thro' their want of induftry, have the additional benefit of freight, for conveying their commodities from one part of the empire to the other.

Such feems to be the prefent ftate of the belligerent powers; and notwithstanding the great fucceffes of Ruffia, we cannot think that peace, upon fuch advantage

[4] 4

ous

ous terms as the may equitably require, can be an undefirable object to her. The expences of fo complicated a war, carried on by fea and land at fuch a distance from her dominions, are far beyond what her finances can bear. Recruiting, in Ruffia, from the vaft diftance of the provinces, the length of time taken, and the difficulties that occur in traverfing fuch boundlefs and inhofpitable defarts as lie between them, and above all from the mortal averfion to the fervice which poffeffes the people, is attended with greater lofs and difficulty, than in any other country in the world. For though the diftricts are obliged to furnish their quotas of men, they must be ftrictly and ftrongly guarded by a fuperior force, from thence to the place of their deftination, fo that the number of troops employed upon this bufinefs is almoft incredible; and notwithstanding the utmost care that can be taken, they frequently lofe half the recruits, before they join their regiments; which can be eafily conceived from the numberlefs opportunities of escape that muft prefent, in a journey perhaps of three or four thousand miles, and which frequently lafts for feveral months: nor does the evil reft here, for as the deferters (from the particular form of the government) can never return to their homes, nor mix again with the community, they are obliged to retire to the woods, where they herd in confiderable bodies, and continue for the rest of their lives in the most favage ftate, fubfifting by robbery, and committing innumerable mur

ders.

It is alfo obfervable, that the Ruffians, though bred in a northern climate, and naturally robust and of strong bodies, lofe more men by fickness in a campaign than any other armies in the world; this, in a great measure, may be imputed to the conftant habit of the extreme hot vapour baths, which they use regularly twice a week when at home, and thereby caufe a moft violent perfpiration; and with which it is impoffible they fhould be fupplied in a camp. The feverity of their lents, which take up more than half the year, contribute alfo to this mortality; for though the clergy, not only difpenfe with their keeping them when on fervice, but by order of the court have taken great pains to recommend the contrary, they are, notwithstanding, fo fuperftitiously attached to them, that they will endure any thing, even death, fooner than be guilty of the fmalleft violation of the rules.

Depopulation is the bane of Ruffia; and the lofs of lives in this war must be prodigious, and for the length of time, greatly exceed that of any former period. How fenfible fhe is of the heavy expences of the war, is evident from the large loans which she has negociated at Amfterdam and other places, and which he had attempted at Venice, till the reverfe of fortune in the Morea damped the fpirit of the lenders.

As to an intention of pushing her conquests much farther, or even an obftinate determination of retaining the Danubian provinces, it is probably no part of the prefent fyftem of Ruffia. Such a con

duct

duct might give too much umbrage to her great and jealous neighbours, who though filent fpectators, ftand ready armed, watchfully attentive to all the events of the war. She has the ballance now in her hands; the confequences that may attend a perfeverance in the war must be very uncertain; but no peace can be propofed in her prefent fuperiority, that will not add highly to her power, fplendour, and advantage.

On the other hand, the great loffes which the Porte has fuftained, the hopeleffnefs of being able to recover them in the prefent ftate of their armies, the danger to which their islands are fubject from the inability of the marine to protect them, and the revolution in Egypt, which requires to be speedily checked, before Ali Bey extends his conquefts, and has time to establish his government; all these causes make peace much to be wifhed for at Conftantinople, and worth the purchase, at any price, almost, which it can be fuppofed Ruffia will think it prudent to fix upon it. Upon the whole, from the prefent appearances on both fides, we fhould imagine peace not to be at a great

distance.

While the rage of war was laying wafte the countries from the north-east to the fouth of Europe, its calamities were very near being extended to the weft and center, and might poffibly in its confequences have nearly involved the whole. The violent act of hoftility committed by Spain, in difpoffeffing England by force of its fettlement in Falkland's islands, accompanied with a new and unheard of infult offered to the British flag, by the forcible detention of a King's

frigate for twenty days, and the taking off of her rudder, in time of profound peace between the two nations, was an injury of such a nature, as fcarcely left room for a hope that these evils could have been averted.

An accommodation has, however, taken place fince the end of the year, which, for the prefent, has in fome degree fkinned over the fore, without removing the caufes from which it proceeded. The continuation of the general repofe, seems, indeed, principally owing to accidental or unforeseen events of thefe, may principally be confidered the calamities of the people in France, proceeding from civil diftractions, from tempefts, torrents, an earthquake which nearly ruined the ifland of St. Domingo; and a famine at home from the inclemency of the feafons; to all which may be added the almoft total lofs of public credit, from the extraordinary measures taken last year, and purfued in this, in regard to their funds: to thefe caufes we are probably only to look for the prefervation of the general tranquillity, as it cannot be imagined that Spain would have ventured upon the commiffion of fo daring an a of hoftility, against a nation whose power fhe had fo lately and fo fatally experienced, if she had not a full affurance at the time that it was refolved on, of being effectually fupported by all the other branches of the Bourbon line. Nor was the object of contention in any degree of fufficient worth to autho rize the rifque of a war, if it had not been blended with other matters: if the ill difpofition of that family to Great Britain, and the jealoufy arifing from the progrefs

of

At home every thing bore the face of war. Levies were made with the greatest industry; all young men above the age of fifteen were enrolled; the troops were marched from the interior provinces to the fea-coafts, where great quantities of heavy artillery and ftores were alfo fent, to put the fortreffes there in the best state of defence. The city and port of Cadiz were particularly attended to, and fuch fpeedy measures taken for its defence, as fufficiently indicated the apprehenfion of an attack. The navy was already in fach a state, as fhewed that the present event was by no means unexpected. A frong fleet was formed at Ferrol, and there were confiderable fquadrons ftationed both at Carthagena and at Cadiz. Every thing both at sea and land seemed to threaten an immediate attack upon Gibraltar, which was but weakly garrifoned, and could have expected no timely affiftance from home for its protection. A fimilar defign feemed to be formed in the West-Indies

against the island of Jamaica, which, feemed to be in equal circumftances of danger, as there was no naval force in that quarter that could have prevented its taking place. Upon the whole, whatever the circumstances were that prevented a war at the present juncture, they feem to have been highly fortunate to England, as, thro' fome unaccountable negligence, we were totally unprepared, both at home and abroad, for an event which all Europe expected to take place; and our navy was far from being in that immediate ftate of fervice, which it should always be in a great maritime country like this, whofe power and fecurity depend in fo great a degree upon its marine.

The fame weak and cruel fyftem, which has fo long difgraced the government of Portugal, becomes every day more glaring and dreadful in its effects, and feems finally to threaten the total ruin of that country. Real or pretended confpiracies, with all the cruel confequences peculiar to that government, are now fo common as to excite neither furprize nor pity. At the fame time, private executions, without any form or pretence of trial, the most dreadful and abhorred by mankind, of all the vices of defpotism, are said to be the prefent favourite mode of removing the obnoxious, and may be confidered as the completion of this fyftem. The prime minifter, the principal actor in the tragedy, does not feem to be much more at his ease than the spectators; and has arrived at that ultimate perfection of tyranny, the fear of being feen by his fellow citizens, without a frong military

guard