do not actually prove fatal to the white man's health. And so, apart from questions of births and deaths, some parts of the Southern States tend to every year become blacker, while others as steadily become whiter.

And the process which is initiated by geographical and climatic considerations is regularly aided by economical ones. The white man

cannot compete as a labourer, or even as an artisan, upon equal terms with the black. He needs higher pay and better food. In black centres, therefore, the poor white man finds himself daily becoming more and more out of his element. Ordinary petty village trades, such as cobbling, tailoring, smithery, and carpentry, are thus, throughout the South, falling very much into the hands of the negroes; while the poor white men, who once had a monopoly of such humble pursuits, are going elsewhere in search of employment. They go, not to the uplands and cities of the South, but to the North, and, above all, to the new West, where every working man with strong arms, a good head, and an honest heart, has to-day the most brilliant of prospects.

The blacks, on the other hand, move about very little. They appreciate such little comforts as they have been able to gather around them

since their manumission, and neither the cold North nor the half-settled West has any charms for them. They have at present no strong ambitions and very few wants. In the estimation of ninety-nine out of a hundred of them a cabin in sunny South Carolina is a much more desirable thing than a five-storeyed house in New York or Chicago, and immeasurably preferable to a store in Nebraska or a hut in Wyoming. Moreover, the black likes to be among his black kinsmen. A white man may occasionally persuade himself to regard a negro as his brother, in theory at least. The black man cares little for theory, and bluntly recognises the white man as a person of alien and, upon the whole, objectionable character from surface to core. And even the most sympathetic white man prefers, in practice, to be surrounded by a white majority rather than by a black, especially when he is at home in the bosom of his family.

These considerations, almost as much as the superior fecundity and fewer wants of the negro, are leading the Black Belt of the South to become blacker than ever. White immigration has almost ceased; white emigration is growing. In 1880, as has been shown, there were 391,105 whites and 604,332 blacks in South Carolina. Of these only 7,686, or 7 per cent., were of foreign birth.

Twenty years before, the number of foreign-born people in the State had been 9,986, and in 1870 it had been 8,074. In the eight old Slave States of the South (B and C) there were, in 1860, 148,662 foreign-born residents, in 1870 but 123,931, and in 1880 only 119,686; while of persons born out of the States, but within the United States, there were 1,813 less in 1880 than in 1870. These are facts which, even if taken alone, are of deep significance. Still more striking, however, are some estimates which have been drawn up for me by a distinguished statistical expert at Washington, and which show the probable numerical aspect of the race question in the eight old Slave States in the near future. Several years ago Professor E. W. Gilliam published a forecast of the developments of the present situation. His estimate of the rate of increase of the Southern whites and negroes was somewhat more alarmist than that which I am now able to give. The new estimate is based upon the general, though not upon the detailed, results of the Census of 1890; and as it also makes allowance for the often alleged imperfections of the Census of 1870, I think that it may be accepted as, upon the whole, a better one than that of Mr. Gilliam, or, indeed, than any that has yet been attempted. I feel bound to mention Mr. Gilliam's name in connec

tion with this matter, for his tables have been very widely quoted, and have been made the foundation of much discussion and speculation. I only reject them because I have others which are the results of fuller and later knowledge. Mr. Gilliam's views on some unfortunately less changeable aspects of the race question remain to-day as true and as valuable as when they were committed to paper seven years ago, and I hope to quote them when, after having completed the dry statistical survey of the whole subject, I proceed to deal with the difficulties and dangers of the Southern problem. Here, in the meantime, is my informant's estimate of the white and coloured populations of the Black Belt States in the years 1900 and 1910 respectively:

As illustrating the moderation of this estimate, it is worth while adding that Professor Gilliam, writing in 1883, was of opinion that, from 1880 onwards, the whites in the South might be expected to increase at the rate of 2 per cent. per annum, and to double their numbers in thirty-five years, and that the blacks in the South might be expected to increase at the rate of 3 per cent. per annum and to double their numbers in twenty years. These formulæ would give to the eight old Slave States about 9,390,000 whites in 1915, and about 17,400,000 blacks in 1920. The actual rate of increase is, however, a comparatively unimportant matter. The significant fact of the situation is that in three or four of the eight States the coloured population already outnumbers the white, and that in every one of the remaining four or five States the existing white majority has been for years growing smaller and smaller, and bids fair within a very short period to disappear entirely, and to make place for an overwhelming and ever-growing black majority.

At present, even in South Carolina, which is the "blackest" State in the Union, the white, and the white alone, rules. He seized power, in selfdefence it is true, by fraud and violence, and he retains it by deception and intimidation; yet, strange to say, even the most respected and (in