Section II contains in organized detail substantially all the known facts and factors supporting the premise upon which the projections are based, namely, that the growth and shift of population, plus the much greater growth in mail volume, make inevitable a constant, substantial increase in the space needed to handle the mail, not only for the next 5 years but for the foreseeable future. 2. Summary of growth factors Since the turn of the century the population of this country has increased from approximately 76 to 190 million, or about 21⁄2 times. A major part of this increase has been in the urban areas of the country, the number of urban communities having increased from approximately 1,700 in 1900 to over 5,000 at the present time. During this same period the volume of originating domestic mail has increased from approximately 7 billion pieces per year in 1900 to approximately 68 billion at the present time, or nearly 10 times the volume at the beginning of the century. Thus, the per capita utilization of the postal service in the past 63 years has increased approximately four times as fast as the population itself, or from an average of 95 pieces per capita in 1900 to over 350 pieces in 1962. A major portion of these increases in mail volumes has resulted from the rapidly accelerating use of the postal communications system by commerce and industry to a point where it is now estimated that 75 percent of all originating domestic mail is generated by commercial and industrial organizations and that an additional 15 percent is generated by the public in response. Since, at the present time, most business enterprises as well as their customers are located within urban areas, the two-thirds of the total population currently living in these areas generates and receives approximately nine-tenths of the total mail volume while the balance of one-third of the population is responsible for but one-tenth of the mail. During most of the period since 1900, the Department has been faced with a constant need to continuously expand its plant capacities in order to handle efficiently this accelerating growth in mail volumes. While the depression period of the decade 1930 to 1940 resulted in a reduction in mail volumes, during which time the public works programs provided an extensive refurbishment of the postal plant, the resumption of the country's economic vigor following 1940 soon resulted in a recurring inadequacy of postal facilities to meet the accelerated rate of postal growth. Based on growth factors of population and mail volumes experienced in the last two decades, it is now estimated that the present population will increase to approximately 247 million by 1980 and at least 330 million by the year 2000. while the mail volume will increase to approximately 124 billion pieces in 1980 and 242 billion in the year 2000. In terms of mail volumes, this means that the total originating domestic mail will nearly double each 20 years to the end of this century, although the population will increase only about 84 percent during the entire period. Based on the application of present standards to these growth factors, it is estimated that it will be necessary to expand the present postal plan at the rate of approximately 5 million square feet of additional interior space per year merely to meet current requirements. However, since sound economic practice dictates the feasibility of building now to meet both current and foreseeable requirements, it is obvious that the plant expansion program, particularly in high-growth areas, should include provisions for handling increasing mail volumes without major additional remodeling or reconstruction. Thus, it is presently estimated that the postal plant must be increased to a minimum of approximatley 150 million square feet of interior space by 1970 and 200 million square feet by 1980 just to keep current and without provision for future growth. The proposed 5-year program, submitted herewith, is simply a segment of the Department's long-range facilities projections based on both meeting today's and a part of tomorrow's needs. Therefore, while the inclusion of expansion factors results in meeting the 1970 target in 1968, it will obviously be necessary to continue to expand the postal plant thereafter as long as the economic vigor of this country continues to grow. 3. Analysis of existing postal facilities As of the close of fiscal year 1963, the Department occupied approximately 112.6 million square feet of interior space in 28,282 Government-owned or leased or rented buildings, exclusive of fourth-class offices and contract stations. The following table sets forth, as of June 30, 1963 (a) the number and types of facilities occupied, (b) the square feet of interior space occupied by type of facility, and (c) the change in interior square feet occupied from 1960 to 1963: TABLE I.—Existing postal facilities (A) NUMBER OF POSTAL UNITS AND AUXILIARY INSTALLATIONS, JUNE 30, 1963 (B) MILLION SQUARE FEET OF INTERIOR POSTAL SPACE, JUNE 30, 1963 (C) SQUARE FEET OF INTERIOR POSTAL SPACE CHANGES, FISCAL YEAR, 1960-63 "Other" includes parcel post annexes, truck terminals, airmail facilities, vehicle maintenance facilities, regional offices, supply centers, and other miscellaneous space. Adjusted to make comparable with Federal space adjustments made in 1962. Leased space is directly controlled by the Department through direct contractual agreements with the lessors. The terms and conditions of these agreements vary considerably by length of lease periods, options to renew or purchase, provisions for lessor or lessee maintenance, and lease cancelation clauses. Lease procedures are generally used for buildings when the rental rates are in excess of $3,000 per year. Basic lease periods vary from 5 to 30 years, depending on the foreseeable requirements and best interests of the Department in each case. Rented space is also directly controlled by the Department through direct contractual agreements which permit either the Department or the owner to cancel an agreement or a 30-day notice by either party. For the most part, rental agreements are used for acquiring small buildings of under 2,000 square feet, although the Department often uses this type of agreement to acquire temporary space of larger dimensions. 4. Five-year projection, fiscal years 1964 through 1968 To meet urgent requirements for additional postal facilities as well as to replace obsolete or inadequate buildings, it will be necessary for the Department to acquire a total of 51.8 milion square feet of interior postal space during the 5-year period 1964 through 1968. 30-442-64 Twenty-five percent of this total, or 12.9 milion square feet, will be needed for replacement purposes and 38.9 million square feet will be needed to handle expanding mail volumes. If this urgently needed space were to be acquired entirely under the leasing program, annual rental rates would increase a net of $82.2 million by the end of the 5-year period. If, on the other hand, these needs were to be met entirely by direct Federal outlays, appropriations totaling approximately $1.1 billion would be required. Table II below summarizes the number of contracts for new construction which it will be necessary for the Department to award each year for the ensuing 5 years under the present leasing program. TABLE II.-Number of awards for new construction, fiscal years 1964 through Table III summarizes the total estimated net changes in occupancy of leased and rented facilities for the entire period 1964 through 1968 and table IV, (a) through (e), sets forth in detail the proposed actions in each specific fiscal year. TABLE III.-Summary: Estimated net changes in occupancy of leased and rented postal facilities, interior operating areas including platforms, and annual rates, fiscal years 1964 through 1968 |