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SECTION II. THE POSTAL COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEM IN THE 20TH CENTURY

1. Postal communications-A public enterprise

The U.S. Post Office Department operates the largest communications system in the world. In terms of numbers of pieces of mail and parcel post handled, the total volume generated in this country is approximately equal to the total volume generated by all other countries reporting mail volume statistics to the Universal Postal Union.1

As the main artery for the transmission of all types of written communications, including legal documents of many kinds, currency transfers, advertising materials, educational and news publications, and general social concourse, the Department's responsibilities bring it in daily contact with almost every area of industrial, commercial, educational, and social activity.

Since for many decades an increasingly greater proportion of the mail volumes have been generated by commercial and industrial users, the postal service is especially identified with this country's economic activities, many of which would be seriously affected by any restrictions on the effective operation of the postal system. In many respects, therefore, the postal communications system closely parallels that of a commercial communications enterprise and, as such, has many similar attributes and problems.

An accurate analysis of past, present and future demands for its services are elemental factors in the Department's planning program. Since the postal system is a basic channel through which a steadily increasing population communicates, the projected growth of the population, as well as its characteristics, are fundamental factors in forecasting future space requirements. Of even greater importance is the continued analysis of the distribution and economic activities of this population.

In this connection, it must be assumed that the need for expanding postal plant facilities will continue for as long as the population continues to increase and the economic vigor of the country is maintained. In addition, it will be necessary to replace outmoded and obsolete portions of the postal plant as time and use reduce their operating effectiveness. These expansion and replacement requirements will necessitate a progressive program of long-term capital commitments, either through Federal appropriations or through utilization of private capital acquired under the Department's leasing program or a combination of the two. In either case, regardless of the source of investment funds, the justification for these commitments must be based on realistic economic and operational projections. From the standpoint of practical management, therefore, the Department must consider the following four major factors in planning to meet anticipated plant requirements:

1. Population growth and concentration

2. Changes in mail volumes and sources of origin

3. Changes in mail distribution patterns and transportation methods 4. Changes in postal services and processing methods.

While the above factors are generally parallel to those which must be considered in the management of many similar commercial and industrial enterprises, the public nature of the postal communications system requires, in addition, that these services be maintained at a high level, not only in the major centers of mail concentration, but also in all outlying areas wherever the public might have need for these services.

Thus, the Post Office Department must carefully balance its plant and equipment program in such a way that it will continue to provide adequate plant capacity, not only in areas of greatest growth, but also across the Nation as a whole.

It is the basic objective of the analyses and projections presented herein to correlate all pertinent factors to the greatest extent possible in a conservative and sound program to meet present and anticipated responsibilities for such plant needs.

Prior to developing projections of this type, it is necessary first to review in some detail the historical growth of the postal system in order to establish a series of benchmarks by which further growth may be realistically gaged.

Therefore, to gain better perspective, the projections presented herein are based primarily on rates of growth developed from analyses of changes which have taken place in this country since the turn of the century. While it is

1 Does not include 57 nonreporting countries principally behind the Iron Curtain.

recognized that these rates of growth may be arrested for limited periods due to unforeseen readjustments, it is believed that the patterns of change during portions of the past 60-year period, which included two major world wars and a major prolonged economic depression, should provide certain reliable guidelines for long-range planning.

As has been noted previously, the 5-year facilities projection for the period fiscal year 1964 through 1968 is simply a segment of a continuing organic growth predicated on experience of the past where reliable data is available. 2. Population growth and concentration

There are three basic interrelated factors which must be considered in analyzing the impact of population growth and population characteristics on the postal communications system. They are as follows:

1. The overall growth of the total population.

2. The continuing proportionate increases in the urban population in contrast to the rural population.

3. The concentration patterns of the urban population by sizes of communities. Chart I illustrates these population changes by 10-year intervals for the period 1900 to 2000. During the first 60 years of this period, the urban-rural ratio changed from 39 to 61 in 1900 to 63 to 37 in 1960. Also, urban population increased a cumulative total of 272 percent while the rural population increased only 45 percent. Further, it will be noted that, during the decade 1930 to 1940, the rate of total population growth not only decreased significantly, but the rate of urbanization also declined at a somewhat greater rate.

Chart II is an analysis of the growth of communities during the period 1900 to 1960, based on population distribution within size ranges, and a projection of growth and distribution by size of community to the year 2000.

From this chart, it may be determined that, in 1960, approximately 50.6 million or 28 percent of the population lived in 130 cities having populations of 100.000 or more; 46.3 million or 26 percent lived in 1,769 communities having populations ranging from 10,000 to 100,000; 15.6 million or 9 percent lived in 3,097 communities having populations ranging from 2,500 to 10,000; and the balance of 66.8 million or 37 percent lived in rural communities or outside recognized communities.

It may be noted that during the period 1940-60, the greatest growth occurred in the communities ranging below 100,000 in population, these communities having absorbed more than half of the urban growth. This accelerated growth in cities of these size ranges resulted in a significant change in the population distribution patterns established in the prior period 1900-40.

Chart I also projects the anticipated growth of the total population as well as the urban and rural segments of the population to the year 2000, based on ratios developed during the period 1940 to 1960. If this rate of growth were to continue in the same proportion, a total population in excess of 330 million people could be anticipated by the year 2000, of which approximately 85 percent might be expected to live in urban communities and approximately 15 percent in rural

areas.

While it is more difficult to predict the distribution of the urban population by sizes of communities over this extended period of time, chart II shows an extension of the growth pattern of communities of 2,500 population and over, using the period 1940–60 as a base. However, it should be noted that the pattern of urbanization by sizes of communities for this period changed substantially from the pattern developed during the prior 40-year period and it is entirely possible that the patterns in the future years might again be altered.

3. Changing mail volumes and sources of origin

There are two basic factors which must be considered in analyzing the effects of changing mail volumes and sources of origin on postal plant requirements. They are as follows:

1. The changes in total mail volumes by types and cubages of mail.

2. The relationship between population distribution and originating mail volumes as they vary by sizes of communities.

Chart III is a tabulation of the total mail volumes at specified intervals during the period 1900-60 and projected volumes to the year 2000.

This chart is of particular significance for two reasons. First, it permits a correlation of types of originating mail to total mail, and second, it illustrates the sensitivity of mail volumes to economic conditions.